TENTitans
10-4
14
TBD
Lambeau Field
28°F
15 mph
40
GBPackers
11-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
28°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
7
7
0
14
Packers
6
13
14
7
40
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
260
448
Total Plays
55
64
Yards / Play
4.7
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.37
Passing Yards
104
214
Comp/Att
11/26(42%)
21/25(84%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
8.6
EPA / Pass
-0.38
+0.38
Rushing Yards
156
234
Rush Attempts
27
38
Yards / Rush
5.8
6.2
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
27
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
12
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
45%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
8
Red Zone %
50%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-9.25
-2.79
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
-17
Sack EPA
-2.55
-4.12
Penalties
3
--
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+30
Home nfelo
1,607
Away nfelo
1,587
Home Field
+6.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.0
Home QB Adjustment
+24.7
Away QB Adjustment
+20.8
Market Regression
-24.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+20.8
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
15
Yards / Game
4
7
Passing Yards / Game
15
19
Rushing Yards / Game
2
10
EPA
EPA / Play
3
17
EPA / Pass
4
11
EPA / Rush
2
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
29
Interceptions / Game
3
15
Fumbles / Game
2
23
Turnover EPA / Game
31
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
14
4th Down Efficiency
6
19
RZ Efficiency
2
13
Packers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
24
Yards / Game
3
28
Passing Yards / Game
24
4
Rushing Yards / Game
8
24
EPA
EPA / Play
1
28
EPA / Pass
1
27
EPA / Rush
5
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
26
Interceptions / Game
1
7
Fumbles / Game
7
21
Turnover EPA / Game
32
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
32
4th Down Efficiency
9
19
RZ Efficiency
1
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U