TENTitans
4-4
30
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
57°F
12 mph
3
CARPanthers
2-6
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
57°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
8
3
3
10
24
Panthers
0
0
3
0
3
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
383
279
Total Plays
63
64
Yards / Play
6.1
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.35
Passing Yards
211
166
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
23/40(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.37
Rushing Yards
172
113
Rush Attempts
35
19
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
23%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.81
-6.09
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-8
-46
Sack EPA
-1.60
-7.40
Penalties
9
12
Penalty Yards
92
99
Penalty EPA
-6.67
-11.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+72
Home nfelo
1,422
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+91.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+31.1
Home QB Adjustment
+42.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+42.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
27
Yards / Game
17
27
Passing Yards / Game
11
25
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24
EPA
EPA / Play
16
31
EPA / Pass
16
32
EPA / Rush
28
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
18
Interceptions / Game
13
20
Fumbles / Game
12
12
Turnover EPA / Game
19
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
7
RZ Efficiency
5
28
Panthers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
8
Yards / Game
7
18
Passing Yards / Game
12
13
Rushing Yards / Game
3
22
EPA
EPA / Play
6
15
EPA / Pass
11
17
EPA / Rush
1
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
31
Interceptions / Game
21
24
Fumbles / Game
2
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
23
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
7
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Panthers
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U