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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ panthers week 10, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
4-4
30
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
57°F
12 mph
3
CARPanthers
2-6
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
57°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
8
3
3
10
24
Panthers
0
0
3
0
3

Spread

TEN logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
47.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
383
279
Total Plays
63
64
Yards / Play
6.1
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.35
Passing Yards
211
166
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
23/40(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.13
-0.37
Rushing Yards
172
113
Rush Attempts
35
19
Yards / Rush
4.9
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.13
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
22
16
Passing 1st downs
9
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
2
3rd Down %
23%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-4.81
-6.09
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-8
-46
Sack EPA
-1.60
-7.40
Penalties
9
12
Penalty Yards
92
99
Penalty EPA
-6.67
-11.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CAR logo
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,424
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+91.6
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+31.1
Home QB Adjustment
+42.3
Away QB Adjustment
+11.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+11.2
Value
Ptile
01/08
5.5
85
01/16
2.8
68
09/11
1.1
61
09/18
7.3
91
09/25
5.7
85
10/02
2.9
72
10/09
-1.1
43
10/23
-7.5
8
10/30
0.6
56
11/06
3.2
73
C. Newton headshot

C. Newton

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+42.3
Value
Ptile
09/11
6.5
88
09/18
3.5
74
09/25
-0.2
50
10/02
9.3
96
10/09
2.8
71
10/16
-1.7
38
10/23
6.4
87
10/30
7.0
90

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Panthers Defense
Titans logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
22
27
Yards / Game
17
27
Passing Yards / Game
11
25
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24

EPA

EPA / Play
16
31
EPA / Pass
16
32
EPA / Rush
28
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
18
Interceptions / Game
13
20
Fumbles / Game
12
12
Turnover EPA / Game
19
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
7
RZ Efficiency
5
28
Panthers Offense vs Titans Defense
Panthers logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
5
8
Yards / Game
7
18
Passing Yards / Game
12
13
Rushing Yards / Game
3
22

EPA

EPA / Play
6
15
EPA / Pass
11
17
EPA / Rush
1
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
7
31
Interceptions / Game
21
24
Fumbles / Game
2
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
23
4th Down Efficiency
4
12
RZ Efficiency
7
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
-20
L
L
O
01/02
-3
L
W
U
09/11
-2
L
L
U
09/18
13
W
W
U
09/25
3
W
L
U
10/02
18
W
W
O
10/09
-21
L
L
O
10/23
-34
L
L
O
10/30
17
W
W
U
11/06
-7
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
-24
L
L
U
01/02
-21
L
L
P
09/11
-7
L
L
O
09/18
-7
L
W
O
09/25
6
W
W
U
10/02
-5
L
W
O
10/09
-3
L
W
O
10/16
-14
L
L
U
10/23
13
W
W
O
10/30
-3
L
L
U