TENTitans
9-7
20
TBD
Gillette Stadium
44°F
4 mph
13
NEPatriots
12-4
TBD
Gillette Stadium
44°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
7
0
0
14
Patriots
3
10
0
0
13
Spread
+5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
272
307
Total Plays
58
59
Yards / Play
4.7
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.12
Passing Yards
71
--
Comp/Att
9/16(56%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.08
Rushing Yards
201
98
Rush Attempts
41
22
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
5
11
Rushing 1st downs
13
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.01
-6.91
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-1.75
--
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
25
28
Penalty EPA
-3.04
-3.20
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+86
Home nfelo
1,673
Away nfelo
1,588
Home Field
+37.6
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-44.9
Home QB Adjustment
-20.1
Away QB Adjustment
+24.8
Market Regression
+2.1
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.8
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-20.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
1
Yards / Game
15
1
Passing Yards / Game
28
4
Rushing Yards / Game
3
8
EPA
EPA / Play
6
1
EPA / Pass
8
1
EPA / Rush
4
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
29
Interceptions / Game
6
1
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
27
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
28
6
RZ Efficiency
1
8
Patriots Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
11
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
20
30
Rushing Yards / Game
18
13
EPA
EPA / Play
16
13
EPA / Pass
18
16
EPA / Rush
15
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
10
7
Fumbles / Game
15
11
Turnover EPA / Game
28
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
16
4th Down Efficiency
26
5
RZ Efficiency
26
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
9-1
O/U
Patriots
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U