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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ patriots week 18, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
9-7
20
TBD
Gillette Stadium
44°F
4 mph
13
NEPatriots
12-4
NE logo
TBD
Gillette Stadium
44°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
7
0
0
14
Patriots
3
10
0
0
13

Spread

TEN logo
+5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Patriots logo
Total Yards
272
307
Total Plays
58
59
Yards / Play
4.7
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.12
Passing Yards
71
--
Comp/Att
9/16(56%)
20/37(54%)
Yards / Pass
4.4
--
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.08
Rushing Yards
201
98
Rush Attempts
41
22
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Patriots logo
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
5
11
Rushing 1st downs
13
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Patriots logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-3.01
-6.91
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-5
--
Sack EPA
-1.75
--
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
25
28
Penalty EPA
-3.04
-3.20

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market67.1%
Model67.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+89
Home nfelo
1,672
Away nfelo
1,584
Home Field
+37.6
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-44.9
Home QB Adjustment
-20.1
Away QB Adjustment
+24.8
Market Regression
+1.4
Final Difference
123.8
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+24.8
Value
Ptile
10/20
3.3
73
10/27
-1.7
41
11/03
2.7
70
11/10
0.1
53
11/24
10.7
98
12/01
-4.0
25
12/08
8.1
94
12/15
0.5
55
12/22
0.6
57
12/29
1.3
63
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-20.1
Value
Ptile
10/21
0.6
56
10/27
-1.1
46
11/03
0.1
52
11/17
-3.5
28
11/24
-5.4
17
12/01
-1.4
44
12/08
-5.2
19
12/15
-5.3
18
12/21
7.1
90
12/29
-3.3
29

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Titans logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
8
1
Yards / Game
15
1
Passing Yards / Game
28
4
Rushing Yards / Game
3
8

EPA

EPA / Play
6
1
EPA / Pass
8
1
EPA / Rush
4
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
29
Interceptions / Game
6
1
Fumbles / Game
3
18
Turnover EPA / Game
27
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
1
4th Down Efficiency
28
6
RZ Efficiency
1
8
Patriots Offense vs Titans Defense
Patriots logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
7
11
Yards / Game
14
22
Passing Yards / Game
20
30
Rushing Yards / Game
18
13

EPA

EPA / Play
16
13
EPA / Pass
18
16
EPA / Rush
15
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
5
Interceptions / Game
10
7
Fumbles / Game
15
11
Turnover EPA / Game
28
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
16
4th Down Efficiency
26
5
RZ Efficiency
26
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
9-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/20
3
W
P
O
10/27
4
W
W
O
11/03
-10
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
W
O
11/24
22
W
W
O
12/01
14
W
W
O
12/08
21
W
W
O
12/15
-3
L
L
U
12/22
-10
L
L
O
12/29
21
W
W
O
NE logo

Patriots

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/21
33
W
W
U
10/27
14
W
W
U
11/03
-17
L
L
O
11/17
7
W
W
U
11/24
4
W
L
U
12/01
-6
L
L
O
12/08
-7
L
L
U
12/15
21
W
W
O
12/21
7
W
P
O
12/29
-3
L
L
O