TENTitans
6-2
28
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
016
LARRams
7-1
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
15
0
7
22
Rams
3
0
3
10
16
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
194
347
Total Plays
56
74
Yards / Play
3.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.27
Passing Yards
125
253
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
31/48(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.42
Rushing Yards
69
94
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.51
-13.96
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-18
-41
Sack EPA
-2.93
-8.31
Penalties
4
12
Penalty Yards
19
115
Penalty EPA
-3.92
-9.94
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+174
Home nfelo
1,642
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+69.3
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
+14.5
Net QB Adjustment
+33.9
Home QB Adjustment
+24.3
Away QB Adjustment
-9.6
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.6
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+24.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
9
Yards / Game
17
13
Passing Yards / Game
20
27
Rushing Yards / Game
5
5
EPA
EPA / Play
17
6
EPA / Pass
16
9
EPA / Rush
10
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
28
Interceptions / Game
25
5
Fumbles / Game
27
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
7
4th Down Efficiency
8
14
RZ Efficiency
9
9
Rams Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
6
Yards / Game
7
11
Passing Yards / Game
1
30
Rushing Yards / Game
27
1
EPA
EPA / Play
9
8
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
31
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
8
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
14
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
6
4th Down Efficiency
17
21
RZ Efficiency
17
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Rams
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U