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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ rams week 9, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
6-2
28
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
16
LARRams
7-1
LAR logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
15
0
7
22
Rams
3
0
3
10
16

Spread

TEN logo
+7

Total

UNDER
53.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
194
347
Total Plays
56
74
Yards / Play
3.5
4.7
EPA / Play
-0.10
-0.27
Passing Yards
125
253
Comp/Att
19/27(70%)
31/48(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.16
-0.42
Rushing Yards
69
94
Rush Attempts
26
21
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.10
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
9
16
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.51
-13.96
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-18
-41
Sack EPA
-2.93
-8.31
Penalties
4
12
Penalty Yards
19
115
Penalty EPA
-3.92
-9.94

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+173
Home nfelo
1,642
Away nfelo
1,572
Home Field
+69.3
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
+14.5
Net QB Adjustment
+33.9
Home QB Adjustment
+24.3
Away QB Adjustment
-9.6
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.6
Value
Ptile
01/03
3.1
67
01/10
-1.6
33
09/12
-5.1
19
09/19
2.4
70
09/26
1.9
66
10/03
-5.3
18
10/10
-3.7
26
10/18
0.7
58
10/24
1.9
67
10/31
0.2
55
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+24.3
Value
Ptile
12/26
-7.1
8
01/03
3.8
72
09/12
6.1
88
09/19
0.1
54
09/26
8.3
93
10/03
2.9
75
10/07
2.3
70
10/17
4.1
80
10/24
4.9
84
10/31
4.3
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Rams Defense
Titans logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
14
9
Yards / Game
17
13
Passing Yards / Game
20
27
Rushing Yards / Game
5
5

EPA

EPA / Play
17
6
EPA / Pass
16
9
EPA / Rush
10
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
28
Interceptions / Game
25
5
Fumbles / Game
27
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
7
4th Down Efficiency
8
14
RZ Efficiency
9
9
Rams Offense vs Titans Defense
Rams logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
6
6
Yards / Game
7
11
Passing Yards / Game
1
30
Rushing Yards / Game
27
1

EPA

EPA / Play
9
8
EPA / Pass
2
10
EPA / Rush
31
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
8
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
11
28
Turnover EPA / Game
14
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
6
4th Down Efficiency
17
21
RZ Efficiency
17
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/03
3
W
L
O
01/10
-7
L
L
U
09/12
-25
L
L
U
09/19
3
W
W
O
09/26
9
W
W
U
10/03
-3
L
L
O
10/10
18
W
W
O
10/18
3
W
W
O
10/24
24
W
W
U
10/31
3
W
W
O
LAR logo

Rams

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/09
10
W
W
O
01/16
-14
L
L
O
09/12
20
W
W
O
09/19
3
W
L
O
09/26
10
W
W
O
10/03
-17
L
L
O
10/07
9
W
W
U
10/17
27
W
W
U
10/24
9
W
L
U
10/31
16
W
L
O