TENTitans
3-2
13
TBD
Lumen Field
51°F
4 mph
20
SEASeahawks
4-1
TBD
Lumen Field
51°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
1
0
3
7
Seahawks
0
7
3
10
20
Spread
+12.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
223
404
Total Plays
52
66
Yards / Play
4.3
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.20
-0.06
Passing Yards
157
253
Comp/Att
17/29(59%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.14
-0.02
Rushing Yards
66
151
Rush Attempts
20
33
Yards / Rush
3.3
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
11
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
0%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-5.82
-15.22
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-14
-4
Sack EPA
-3.69
-2.44
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
44
65
Penalty EPA
-7.35
-11.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+332
Home nfelo
1,663
Away nfelo
1,412
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.0
Home QB Adjustment
+2.2
Away QB Adjustment
+5.2
Market Regression
-28.9
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
1
Yards / Game
21
1
Passing Yards / Game
15
5
Rushing Yards / Game
14
7
EPA
EPA / Play
16
1
EPA / Pass
13
1
EPA / Rush
12
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
16
Interceptions / Game
18
1
Fumbles / Game
5
13
Turnover EPA / Game
20
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
9
4th Down Efficiency
7
7
RZ Efficiency
9
2
Seahawks Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
16
Yards / Game
22
14
Passing Yards / Game
28
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
19
EPA
EPA / Play
12
22
EPA / Pass
4
15
EPA / Rush
21
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
23
Interceptions / Game
2
22
Fumbles / Game
21
1
Turnover EPA / Game
29
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
6
4th Down Efficiency
19
27
RZ Efficiency
14
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Seahawks
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U