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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ seahawks week 17, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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TEN logo
TENTitans
7-8
17
TBD
Lumen Field
46°F
0
13
SEASeahawks
5-10
SEA logo
TBD
Lumen Field
46°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
0
3
7
17
Seahawks
0
7
3
3
13

Spread

SEA logo
+6

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Seahawks logo
Total Yards
304
309
Total Plays
67
60
Yards / Play
4.5
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
169
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
16/31(52%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.21
Rushing Yards
133
140
Rush Attempts
39
26
Yards / Rush
3.4
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.06
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Seahawks logo
1st Downs
19
16
Passing 1st downs
10
8
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
43%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
67%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Seahawks logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.20
-1.85
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-23
Sack EPA
--
-5.37
Penalties
9
5
Penalty Yards
76
--
Penalty EPA
-6.38
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market69.8%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
SEA logo
Seahawks+6.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
52.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,389
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-27.5
Home QB Adjustment
-13.8
Away QB Adjustment
+13.7
Market Regression
+3.7
Final Difference
-113.1
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

V. Young headshot

V. Young

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+13.7
Value
Ptile
09/07
-5.4
13
11/01
1.3
58
11/08
1.2
58
11/15
4.2
77
11/23
3.3
72
11/29
3.8
74
12/06
1.5
60
12/13
3.9
74
12/20
2.8
68
12/25
-5.4
17
M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-13.8
Value
Ptile
10/18
-13.5
1
11/01
1.2
57
11/08
5.6
85
11/15
-5.2
19
11/22
0.2
51
11/29
-3.2
30
12/06
2.0
64
12/13
-0.9
44
12/20
-4.8
21
12/27
-9.2
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Titans logo
Seahawks logo

Total

Points / Game
15
25
Yards / Game
13
23
Passing Yards / Game
31
5
Rushing Yards / Game
2
14

EPA

EPA / Play
13
21
EPA / Pass
17
28
EPA / Rush
2
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
11
Interceptions / Game
14
22
Fumbles / Game
29
23
Turnover EPA / Game
22
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
18
4th Down Efficiency
12
15
RZ Efficiency
9
21
Seahawks Offense vs Titans Defense
Seahawks logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
25
28
Yards / Game
21
27
Passing Yards / Game
7
25
Rushing Yards / Game
26
11

EPA

EPA / Play
25
27
EPA / Pass
24
26
EPA / Rush
31
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
32
Interceptions / Game
24
7
Fumbles / Game
22
28
Turnover EPA / Game
7
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
26
4th Down Efficiency
22
31
RZ Efficiency
30
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
-59
L
L
O
11/01
17
W
W
U
11/08
7
W
W
O
11/15
24
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
W
U
11/29
3
W
L
U
12/06
-10
L
L
U
12/13
40
W
W
O
12/20
3
W
L
O
12/25
-25
L
L
O
SEA logo

Seahawks

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
-24
L
L
U
11/01
-21
L
L
O
11/08
12
W
W
O
11/15
-11
L
L
O
11/22
-26
L
L
U
11/29
10
W
W
O
12/06
3
W
W
U
12/13
-27
L
L
U
12/20
-17
L
L
U
12/27
-38
L
L
O