TENTitans
6-3
17
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
40°F
17 mph
40
PITSteelers
7-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
40°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
7
0
10
0
17
Steelers
10
6
7
17
40
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
316
357
Total Plays
60
70
Yards / Play
5.3
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.23
+0.14
Passing Yards
264
292
Comp/Att
22/34(65%)
31/46(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.25
Rushing Yards
52
65
Rush Attempts
21
21
Yards / Rush
2.5
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
26
Passing 1st downs
9
20
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-19.00
--
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-42
-15
Sack EPA
-8.54
-4.28
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
65
61
Penalty EPA
-7.68
-6.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+154
Home nfelo
1,616
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+46.0
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.0
Net QB Adjustment
-18.1
Home QB Adjustment
-7.6
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-7.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
11
Yards / Game
21
5
Passing Yards / Game
23
13
Rushing Yards / Game
9
13
EPA
EPA / Play
18
17
EPA / Pass
24
12
EPA / Rush
10
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
28
Interceptions / Game
26
11
Fumbles / Game
11
22
Turnover EPA / Game
7
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
13
4th Down Efficiency
8
9
RZ Efficiency
16
31
Steelers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
19
Yards / Game
3
15
Passing Yards / Game
5
29
Rushing Yards / Game
22
4
EPA
EPA / Play
5
23
EPA / Pass
6
23
EPA / Rush
19
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
13
Interceptions / Game
24
23
Fumbles / Game
3
17
Turnover EPA / Game
18
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
18
4th Down Efficiency
13
26
RZ Efficiency
18
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
7-3
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U