TENTitans
9-4
13
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
32°F
11 mph
19
PITSteelers
6-6
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
32°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
10
3
0
0
13
Steelers
0
3
7
9
19
Spread
-1
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
318
168
Total Plays
78
45
Yards / Play
4.1
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.29
Passing Yards
117
133
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.50
-0.31
Rushing Yards
201
35
Rush Attempts
42
17
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.1
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
12
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
14
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
44%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-18.21
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-36
-15
Sack EPA
-6.07
-4.69
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
68
30
Penalty EPA
-7.68
-6.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+12
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+43.8
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.7
Net QB Adjustment
+13.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.5
Away QB Adjustment
-23.0
Market Regression
+30.8
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-23.0
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
22
Yards / Game
17
27
Passing Yards / Game
20
14
Rushing Yards / Game
5
32
EPA
EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
16
18
EPA / Rush
10
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
17
Interceptions / Game
25
16
Fumbles / Game
27
6
Turnover EPA / Game
10
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
12
4th Down Efficiency
8
17
RZ Efficiency
9
11
Steelers Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
6
Yards / Game
23
11
Passing Yards / Game
14
30
Rushing Yards / Game
30
1
EPA
EPA / Play
24
8
EPA / Pass
26
10
EPA / Rush
19
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
8
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
17
28
Turnover EPA / Game
23
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
6
4th Down Efficiency
20
21
RZ Efficiency
21
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Steelers
5-4-1
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U