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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ steelers week 15, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
9-4
13
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
32°F
11 mph
19
PITSteelers
6-6
PIT logo
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
32°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
10
3
0
0
13
Steelers
0
3
7
9
19

Spread

PIT logo
-1

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Steelers logo
Total Yards
318
168
Total Plays
78
45
Yards / Play
4.1
3.7
EPA / Play
-0.26
-0.29
Passing Yards
117
133
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
3.7
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.50
-0.31
Rushing Yards
201
35
Rush Attempts
42
17
Yards / Rush
4.8
2.1
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Steelers logo
1st Downs
22
12
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
14
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
44%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
8
2
3rd Down Attempts
18
11
Red Zone %
25%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Steelers logo
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-18.21
--
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-36
-15
Sack EPA
-6.07
-4.69
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
68
30
Penalty EPA
-7.68
-6.95

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PIT logo
PITSteelersFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+11
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+43.7
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+6.6
Net QB Adjustment
+13.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.5
Away QB Adjustment
-23.0
Market Regression
+34.1
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-23.0
Value
Ptile
10/03
-5.3
18
10/10
-3.7
26
10/18
0.7
58
10/24
1.9
67
10/31
0.2
55
11/07
-2.0
38
11/14
1.6
65
11/21
-5.6
16
11/28
-4.3
23
12/12
-3.1
30
B. Roethlisberger headshot

B. Roethlisberger

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.5
Value
Ptile
09/26
-3.7
26
10/03
-2.0
38
10/10
2.1
69
10/17
1.3
62
10/31
-0.4
49
11/08
-1.7
40
11/21
2.9
75
11/28
-6.3
13
12/05
3.0
76
12/09
0.9
60

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Steelers Defense
Titans logo
Steelers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
22
Yards / Game
17
27
Passing Yards / Game
20
14
Rushing Yards / Game
5
32

EPA

EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
16
18
EPA / Rush
10
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
17
Interceptions / Game
25
16
Fumbles / Game
27
6
Turnover EPA / Game
10
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
12
4th Down Efficiency
8
17
RZ Efficiency
9
11
Steelers Offense vs Titans Defense
Steelers logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
21
6
Yards / Game
23
11
Passing Yards / Game
14
30
Rushing Yards / Game
30
1

EPA

EPA / Play
24
8
EPA / Pass
26
10
EPA / Rush
19
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
8
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
17
28
Turnover EPA / Game
23
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
6
4th Down Efficiency
20
21
RZ Efficiency
21
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
-3
L
L
O
10/10
18
W
W
O
10/18
3
W
W
O
10/24
24
W
W
U
10/31
3
W
W
O
11/07
12
W
W
U
11/14
2
W
L
P
11/21
-9
L
L
U
11/28
-23
L
L
O
12/12
20
W
W
U
PIT logo

Steelers

5-4-1
SU
4-6
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
-10
L
L
U
10/10
8
W
W
O
10/17
3
W
L
P
10/31
5
W
W
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
11/14
0
T
L
U
11/21
-4
L
W
O
11/28
-31
L
L
O
12/05
1
W
W
U
12/09
-8
L
L
O