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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ texans week 4, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
1-2
20
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
27
HOUTexans
2-1
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
14
3
0
20
Texans
14
6
1
0
21

Spread

HOU logo
-4

Total

OVER
40

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
320
359
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
5.2
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.08
Passing Yards
196
244
Comp/Att
13/29(45%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.01
Rushing Yards
124
115
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.88
-8.86
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-10
Sack EPA
-1.29
-1.82
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
93
59
Penalty EPA
-9.18
-7.99

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model65.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+142
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,406
Home Field
+52.1
Base HFA
+58.0
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-0.8
Market Regression
-58.3
Final Difference
112.7
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

M. Mariota headshot

M. Mariota

Proj. Value
-0.7
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
Value
Ptile
11/08
10.8
98
11/15
-1.3
41
11/19
-1.1
43
11/29
-4.2
20
12/06
9.1
95
12/13
-7.1
7
12/20
-8.0
4
09/11
1.6
61
09/18
0.5
53
09/25
-6.2
11
B. Osweiler headshot

B. Osweiler

Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Value
Ptile
11/22
-0.4
49
11/29
-3.3
27
12/06
-4.4
18
12/13
-1.0
44
12/20
2.1
66
12/28
2.6
69
01/03
-3.3
26
09/11
-0.5
45
09/18
-3.5
23
09/22
-4.6
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
14
12
Yards / Game
11
1
Passing Yards / Game
31
7
Rushing Yards / Game
3
11

EPA

EPA / Play
13
3
EPA / Pass
13
4
EPA / Rush
11
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
22
Interceptions / Game
12
13
Fumbles / Game
16
25
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
7
4th Down Efficiency
30
3
RZ Efficiency
1
16
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
28
16
Yards / Game
29
20
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
4

EPA

EPA / Play
31
20
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
26
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
25
20
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
11
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
8
4th Down Efficiency
29
18
RZ Efficiency
31
7

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

2-8
SU
1-8-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
-6
L
L
U
11/29
-3
L
L
P
12/06
3
W
P
O
12/13
-22
L
L
U
12/20
-17
L
L
O
12/27
-28
L
L
O
01/03
-6
L
L
O
09/11
-9
L
L
O
09/18
1
W
W
U
09/25
-7
L
L
U
HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/29
18
W
W
U
12/06
-9
L
L
O
12/13
-21
L
L
U
12/20
6
W
W
U
12/27
28
W
W
O
01/03
24
W
W
U
01/09
-30
L
L
U
09/11
9
W
W
U
09/18
7
W
W
U
09/22
-27
L
L
U