TENTitans
1-2
20
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
027
HOUTexans
2-1
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
14
3
0
20
Texans
14
6
1
0
21
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
320
359
Total Plays
62
62
Yards / Play
5.2
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.08
Passing Yards
196
244
Comp/Att
13/29(45%)
25/37(68%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.09
-0.01
Rushing Yards
124
115
Rush Attempts
32
24
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
7
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
47%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.88
-8.86
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-6
-10
Sack EPA
-1.29
-1.82
Penalties
11
6
Penalty Yards
93
59
Penalty EPA
-9.18
-7.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model65.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+140
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,410
Home Field
+51.4
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.3
Away QB Adjustment
-0.8
Market Regression
-58.6
Final Difference
112.4
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Mariota
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
12
Yards / Game
11
1
Passing Yards / Game
31
7
Rushing Yards / Game
3
11
EPA
EPA / Play
13
3
EPA / Pass
13
4
EPA / Rush
11
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
22
Interceptions / Game
12
13
Fumbles / Game
16
25
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
7
4th Down Efficiency
30
3
RZ Efficiency
1
16
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
16
Yards / Game
29
20
Passing Yards / Game
28
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
4
EPA
EPA / Play
31
20
EPA / Pass
29
23
EPA / Rush
26
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
25
Interceptions / Game
25
20
Fumbles / Game
10
30
Turnover EPA / Game
11
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
8
4th Down Efficiency
29
18
RZ Efficiency
31
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
2-8
SU
1-8-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
2-8
O/U