TENTitans
0-3
0
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
026
HOUTexans
0-3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
0
0
0
Texans
3
3
0
20
26
Spread
-7.5
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
175
353
Total Plays
46
66
Yards / Play
3.8
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.55
+0.09
Passing Yards
93
224
Comp/Att
10/26(38%)
22/29(76%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.64
+0.28
Rushing Yards
82
129
Rush Attempts
18
35
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
20
Passing 1st downs
5
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
18%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.64
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-9
Sack EPA
-2.91
-2.19
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
35
50
Penalty EPA
-3.42
-5.02
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+197
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,330
Home Field
+34.4
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
-17.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.8
Home QB Adjustment
-12.4
Away QB Adjustment
-11.6
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
C. Ward
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
Value
Ptile
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
1
Yards / Game
31
5
Passing Yards / Game
28
15
Rushing Yards / Game
29
12
EPA
EPA / Play
31
1
EPA / Pass
32
3
EPA / Rush
25
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
11
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
29
16
Turnover EPA / Game
14
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
10
RZ Efficiency
27
24
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
28
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
17
13
Rushing Yards / Game
23
28
EPA
EPA / Play
27
28
EPA / Pass
26
26
EPA / Rush
11
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
2
Interceptions / Game
17
8
Fumbles / Game
18
16
Turnover EPA / Game
17
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
16
4th Down Efficiency
5
23
RZ Efficiency
31
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Texans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U