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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ texans week 4, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
0-3
0
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
26
HOUTexans
0-3
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
0
0
0
Texans
3
3
0
20
26

Spread

HOU logo
-7.5

Total

UNDER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
175
353
Total Plays
46
66
Yards / Play
3.8
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.55
+0.09
Passing Yards
93
224
Comp/Att
10/26(38%)
22/29(76%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
7.7
EPA / Pass
-0.64
+0.28
Rushing Yards
82
129
Rush Attempts
18
35
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
10
20
Passing 1st downs
5
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
18%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
2
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
NaN%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
--
2
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.64
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-9
Sack EPA
-2.91
-2.19
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
35
50
Penalty EPA
-3.42
-5.02

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+195
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,335
Home Field
+35.5
Base HFA
+39.5
Divisional Adj
-17.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.8
Home QB Adjustment
-12.4
Away QB Adjustment
-11.6
Market Regression
+14.3
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

C. Ward headshot

C. Ward

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
Value
Ptile
09/07
-12.0
1
09/14
-5.9
14
09/21
-5.0
18
C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-12.4
Value
Ptile
11/24
-4.3
21
12/01
-2.2
33
12/15
-3.7
24
12/21
-1.0
41
12/25
-8.4
4
01/11
1.0
55
01/18
-3.5
25
09/07
-3.3
27
09/15
-3.1
29
09/21
-3.6
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
30
3
Yards / Game
31
1
Passing Yards / Game
27
16
Rushing Yards / Game
30
2

EPA

EPA / Play
30
1
EPA / Pass
31
1
EPA / Rush
28
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
22
Interceptions / Game
4
4
Fumbles / Game
32
4
Turnover EPA / Game
15
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
2
4th Down Efficiency
26
9
RZ Efficiency
13
13
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
13
28
Yards / Game
18
21
Passing Yards / Game
26
30
Rushing Yards / Game
22
14

EPA

EPA / Play
24
25
EPA / Pass
16
29
EPA / Rush
30
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
6
Interceptions / Game
21
29
Fumbles / Game
7
23
Turnover EPA / Game
22
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
16
4th Down Efficiency
15
32
RZ Efficiency
29
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
5
W
W
O
12/01
-23
L
L
O
12/08
-4
L
L
U
12/15
-10
L
L
O
12/22
-8
L
L
O
12/29
-7
L
L
U
01/05
-9
L
L
O
09/07
-8
L
W
U
09/14
-14
L
L
O
09/21
-21
L
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
3
W
L
U
12/15
8
W
W
U
12/21
-8
L
L
O
12/25
-29
L
L
U
01/05
9
W
W
O
01/11
20
W
W
O
01/18
-9
L
W
U
09/07
-5
L
L
U
09/15
-1
L
L
U
09/21
-7
L
L
U