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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ texans week 8, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
1-5
6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
20
HOUTexans
2-5
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
0
3
0
6
Texans
0
10
7
3
20

Spread

HOU logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
211
270
Total Plays
58
61
Yards / Play
3.6
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.46
-0.21
Passing Yards
125
214
Comp/Att
22/31(71%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.73
-0.10
Rushing Yards
86
56
Rush Attempts
20
23
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
15
14
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
8%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-14.54
--
Sacks
7
3
Sack Yards
-46
-21
Sack EPA
-14.84
-2.73
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
45
85
Penalty EPA
-4.19
-8.32

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model70.0%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.8%
Cover Probability
55.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+193
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,357
Home Field
+55.8
Base HFA
+62.1
Divisional Adj
-28.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+56.5
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
-64.6
Market Regression
-9.8
Final Difference
146.9
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

Z. Mettenberger headshot

Z. Mettenberger

Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-64.6
Value
Ptile
10/26
1.4
60
11/09
-7.5
9
11/17
2.4
68
11/23
-3.4
28
11/30
-1.4
41
12/07
-10.5
2
10/25
-4.6
17
B. Hoyer headshot

B. Hoyer

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Value
Ptile
10/26
1.3
59
11/02
-4.0
26
11/06
-0.5
47
11/16
-6.2
15
11/23
-4.8
21
11/30
-4.9
21
12/07
-9.9
3
09/13
-4.9
16
10/18
5.3
83
10/25
-3.8
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
28
10
Yards / Game
30
3
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
25
11

EPA

EPA / Play
31
3
EPA / Pass
30
4
EPA / Rush
25
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
17
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
32
22
Turnover EPA / Game
5
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
1
4th Down Efficiency
22
24
RZ Efficiency
5
19
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
26
27
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
10
15
Rushing Yards / Game
16
18

EPA

EPA / Play
28
23
EPA / Pass
26
28
EPA / Rush
22
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
20
29
Turnover EPA / Game
17
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
25
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
14
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/07
-29
L
L
U
12/14
-5
L
L
U
12/18
-8
L
L
U
12/28
-17
L
L
U
09/13
28
W
W
O
09/20
-14
L
L
O
09/27
-2
L
W
O
10/11
-1
L
L
U
10/18
-28
L
L
O
10/25
-3
L
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/14
-7
L
P
U
12/21
12
W
W
U
12/28
6
W
L
O
09/13
-7
L
L
O
09/20
-7
L
L
P
09/27
10
W
W
U
10/04
-27
L
L
O
10/08
-7
L
L
O
10/18
11
W
W
O
10/25
-18
L
L
O