TENTitans
1-5
6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
020
HOUTexans
2-5
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
0
3
0
6
Texans
0
10
7
3
20
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
211
270
Total Plays
58
61
Yards / Play
3.6
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.46
-0.21
Passing Yards
125
214
Comp/Att
22/31(71%)
23/35(66%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.73
-0.10
Rushing Yards
86
56
Rush Attempts
20
23
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.4
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
14
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
1
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
8%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
1
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
15
Red Zone %
0%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
--
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-14.54
--
Sacks
7
3
Sack Yards
-46
-21
Sack EPA
-14.84
-2.73
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
45
85
Penalty EPA
-4.19
-8.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model70.0%
Spread Pick
Texans-3.5
Expected Value
+6.8%
Cover Probability
55.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+193
Home nfelo
1,438
Away nfelo
1,357
Home Field
+55.8
Base HFA
+62.1
Divisional Adj
-28.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+56.5
Home QB Adjustment
-8.1
Away QB Adjustment
-64.6
Market Regression
-9.8
Final Difference
146.9
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
Z. Mettenberger
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-64.6
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
10
Yards / Game
30
3
Passing Yards / Game
22
4
Rushing Yards / Game
25
11
EPA
EPA / Play
31
3
EPA / Pass
30
4
EPA / Rush
25
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
17
Interceptions / Game
24
14
Fumbles / Game
32
22
Turnover EPA / Game
5
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
1
4th Down Efficiency
22
24
RZ Efficiency
5
19
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
27
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
10
15
Rushing Yards / Game
16
18
EPA
EPA / Play
28
23
EPA / Pass
26
28
EPA / Rush
22
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
1
Interceptions / Game
21
20
Fumbles / Game
20
29
Turnover EPA / Game
17
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
25
4th Down Efficiency
32
5
RZ Efficiency
14
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U