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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ texans week 11, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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TEN logo
TENTitans
3-6
20
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
17
HOUTexans
5-4
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
14
3
3
20
Texans
7
7
3
0
17

Spread

TEN logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
344
340
Total Plays
64
60
Yards / Play
5.4
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.04
Passing Yards
--
283
Comp/Att
12/22(55%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.13
Rushing Yards
228
57
Rush Attempts
42
17
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
6
16
Rushing 1st downs
12
1
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
46%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.81
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-22
Sack EPA
--
-6.09
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
--
72
Penalty EPA
--
-7.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,537
Away nfelo
1,533
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.5
Home QB Adjustment
+21.5
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

V. Young headshot

V. Young

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
Value
Ptile
12/02
3.3
74
12/09
-4.8
19
12/16
4.6
80
12/23
-5.9
13
12/30
1.9
64
01/06
-4.3
23
09/07
-5.4
13
11/01
1.3
58
11/08
1.2
58
11/15
4.2
77
M. Schaub headshot

M. Schaub

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+21.5
Value
Ptile
12/28
8.8
95
09/13
-5.1
20
09/20
11.7
99
09/27
5.5
84
10/04
-5.0
21
10/11
8.0
92
10/18
8.8
94
10/25
4.1
76
11/01
0.2
51
11/08
4.4
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
15
16
Yards / Game
13
14
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
10

EPA

EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
17
11
EPA / Rush
2
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
27
Interceptions / Game
14
21
Fumbles / Game
29
20
Turnover EPA / Game
22
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
12
7
RZ Efficiency
9
30
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
10
28
Yards / Game
5
27
Passing Yards / Game
10
25
Rushing Yards / Game
30
11

EPA

EPA / Play
9
27
EPA / Pass
6
26
EPA / Rush
29
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
32
Interceptions / Game
18
7
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
26
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
12
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/10
-3
L
L
P
09/10
-3
L
W
U
09/20
-3
L
L
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-20
L
L
O
10/11
-22
L
L
U
10/18
-59
L
L
O
11/01
17
W
W
U
11/08
7
W
W
O
11/15
24
W
W
O
HOU logo

Texans

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
7
W
W
P
09/13
-17
L
L
U
09/20
3
W
W
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
23
W
W
U
10/11
-7
L
L
U
10/18
11
W
W
U
10/25
3
W
P
O
11/01
21
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
W
U