TENTitans
3-6
20
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
017
HOUTexans
5-4
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
14
3
3
20
Texans
7
7
3
0
17
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
344
340
Total Plays
64
60
Yards / Play
5.4
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.11
+0.04
Passing Yards
--
283
Comp/Att
12/22(55%)
25/39(64%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.13
Rushing Yards
228
57
Rush Attempts
42
17
Yards / Rush
5.4
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.14
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
6
16
Rushing 1st downs
12
1
Penalty 1st downs
4
--
3rd Down %
46%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.81
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-22
Sack EPA
--
-6.09
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
--
72
Penalty EPA
--
-7.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+63
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+52.2
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+13.5
Home QB Adjustment
+21.5
Away QB Adjustment
+8.0
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
V. Young
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+8.0
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+21.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
16
Yards / Game
13
14
Passing Yards / Game
31
16
Rushing Yards / Game
2
10
EPA
EPA / Play
13
16
EPA / Pass
17
11
EPA / Rush
2
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
27
Interceptions / Game
14
21
Fumbles / Game
29
20
Turnover EPA / Game
22
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
12
7
RZ Efficiency
9
30
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
28
Yards / Game
5
27
Passing Yards / Game
10
25
Rushing Yards / Game
30
11
EPA
EPA / Play
9
27
EPA / Pass
6
26
EPA / Rush
29
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
32
Interceptions / Game
18
7
Fumbles / Game
25
28
Turnover EPA / Game
10
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
26
4th Down Efficiency
4
31
RZ Efficiency
12
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-6-1
O/U