TENTitans
5-5
0
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
020
HOUTexans
4-6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
0
0
0
Texans
0
14
3
3
20
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
162
346
Total Plays
44
76
Yards / Play
3.7
4.6
EPA / Play
-0.43
+0.03
Passing Yards
138
158
Comp/Att
17/31(55%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.43
-0.02
Rushing Yards
24
188
Rush Attempts
12
39
Yards / Rush
2.0
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.45
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
24
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
27%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
11
18
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.89
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
-0.51
-2.03
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
79
68
Penalty EPA
-11.57
-8.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model65.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+75
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,525
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+70.5
Home QB Adjustment
-1.4
Away QB Adjustment
-71.9
Market Regression
-4.3
Final Difference
113.7
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
R. Smith
Proj. Value
-4.3
Team Elo Adj
-71.9
No recent game data available
M. Schaub
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
29
Yards / Game
28
29
Passing Yards / Game
29
30
Rushing Yards / Game
17
14
EPA
EPA / Play
14
32
EPA / Pass
16
32
EPA / Rush
28
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
21
Interceptions / Game
13
23
Fumbles / Game
28
32
Turnover EPA / Game
17
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
20
4th Down Efficiency
10
32
RZ Efficiency
10
31
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
15
Yards / Game
3
26
Passing Yards / Game
13
32
Rushing Yards / Game
7
20
EPA
EPA / Play
2
21
EPA / Pass
5
22
EPA / Rush
4
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
26
Interceptions / Game
7
11
Fumbles / Game
3
31
Turnover EPA / Game
29
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
7
RZ Efficiency
5
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Texans
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U