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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ texans week 13, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
2-9
21
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
45
HOUTexans
5-6
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
8
7
15
Texans
14
10
7
14
45

Spread

HOU logo
-7

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
320
457
Total Plays
56
69
Yards / Play
5.7
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.30
+0.11
Passing Yards
237
--
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.50
+0.64
Rushing Yards
83
99
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
3
11
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-25.68
-10.87
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-38
--
Sack EPA
-10.61
--
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
66
40
Penalty EPA
-3.20
-3.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+156
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,392
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+44.4
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
-43.9
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0

Quarterbacks

Z. Mettenberger headshot

Z. Mettenberger

Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-43.9
Value
Ptile
10/26
1.4
60
11/09
-7.5
9
11/17
2.4
68
11/23
-3.4
28
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
12/29
-5.0
19
09/07
1.5
61
09/14
1.1
57
09/21
-0.4
47
09/28
-1.6
38
10/05
-4.5
23
10/09
-2.9
30
10/20
2.8
70
10/26
-4.2
25
11/02
-2.7
31

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
29
16
Passing Yards / Game
16
23
Rushing Yards / Game
26
9

EPA

EPA / Play
30
2
EPA / Pass
30
2
EPA / Rush
17
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
27
Interceptions / Game
19
3
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
13
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
2
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
26
4
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
14
29
Yards / Game
16
27
Passing Yards / Game
32
2
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31

EPA

EPA / Play
19
30
EPA / Pass
17
26
EPA / Rush
14
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
6
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
19
30
Turnover EPA / Game
16
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
19
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
15
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
-16
L
L
U
09/21
-26
L
L
U
09/28
-24
L
L
O
10/05
-1
L
P
O
10/12
2
W
L
U
10/19
-2
L
W
U
10/26
-14
L
L
O
11/09
-14
L
L
U
11/17
-3
L
W
O
11/23
-19
L
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
16
W
W
O
09/21
-13
L
L
O
09/28
6
W
W
U
10/05
-3
L
W
U
10/09
-5
L
L
O
10/20
-7
L
L
O
10/26
14
W
W
O
11/02
-10
L
L
O
11/16
16
W
W
U
11/23
-9
L
L
U