TENTitans
2-9
21
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
045
HOUTexans
5-6
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
0
8
7
15
Texans
14
10
7
14
45
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
320
457
Total Plays
56
69
Yards / Play
5.7
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.30
+0.11
Passing Yards
237
--
Comp/Att
19/31(61%)
24/33(73%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
--
EPA / Pass
-0.50
+0.64
Rushing Yards
83
99
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
3.8
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
33%
65%
3rd Down Conversions
3
11
3rd Down Attempts
9
17
Red Zone %
0%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-25.68
-10.87
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-38
--
Sack EPA
-10.61
--
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
66
40
Penalty EPA
-3.20
-3.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+156
Home nfelo
1,470
Away nfelo
1,392
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+44.4
Home QB Adjustment
+0.6
Away QB Adjustment
-43.9
Market Regression
+15.5
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
Z. Mettenberger
Proj. Value
-4.9
Team Elo Adj
-43.9
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
29
16
Passing Yards / Game
16
23
Rushing Yards / Game
26
9
EPA
EPA / Play
30
2
EPA / Pass
30
2
EPA / Rush
17
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
27
Interceptions / Game
19
3
Fumbles / Game
13
6
Turnover EPA / Game
13
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
2
4th Down Efficiency
28
7
RZ Efficiency
26
4
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
29
Yards / Game
16
27
Passing Yards / Game
32
2
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31
EPA
EPA / Play
19
30
EPA / Pass
17
26
EPA / Rush
14
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
6
Interceptions / Game
11
22
Fumbles / Game
19
30
Turnover EPA / Game
16
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
19
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
15
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Texans
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U