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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ texans week 17, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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TEN logo
TENTitans
8-7
23
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
22
HOUTexans
10-5
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
13
3
7
23
Texans
7
3
3
9
22

Spread

HOU logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
38.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
361
387
Total Plays
60
66
Yards / Play
6.0
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.01
Passing Yards
275
235
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.07
Rushing Yards
86
152
Rush Attempts
22
31
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
43%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.18
-5.31
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-22
-23
Sack EPA
-5.11
-8.08
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
47
55
Penalty EPA
-5.12
-4.18

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
+1.0

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model47.4%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.5%
Cover Probability
54.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+73
Home nfelo
1,625
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-91.3
Home QB Adjustment
-100.3
Away QB Adjustment
-9.0
Market Regression
-14.5
Final Difference
18.4
Model Spread
-1.0

Quarterbacks

M. Hasselbeck headshot

M. Hasselbeck

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-9.0
Value
Ptile
10/23
-7.5
8
10/30
0.6
56
11/06
3.2
73
11/13
-0.1
51
11/20
-4.1
24
11/27
-7.2
9
12/04
-2.9
32
12/11
-4.5
21
12/18
-3.4
28
12/24
-0.1
52
T. Yates headshot

T. Yates

Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-100.3
Value
Ptile
12/04
-3.1
30
12/11
0.9
59
12/18
-4.6
21
12/22
-6.0
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
17
2
Passing Yards / Game
11
11
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2

EPA

EPA / Play
16
2
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
28
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
24
Interceptions / Game
13
12
Fumbles / Game
12
22
Turnover EPA / Game
19
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
13
4th Down Efficiency
1
10
RZ Efficiency
5
11
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
13
18
Passing Yards / Game
25
13
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22

EPA

EPA / Play
14
15
EPA / Pass
10
17
EPA / Rush
11
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
4
24
Fumbles / Game
20
4
Turnover EPA / Game
20
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
23
4th Down Efficiency
30
12
RZ Efficiency
22
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/23
-34
L
L
O
10/30
17
W
W
U
11/06
-7
L
L
U
11/13
27
W
W
U
11/20
-6
L
P
U
11/27
6
W
W
U
12/04
6
W
W
U
12/11
-5
L
L
U
12/18
-14
L
L
U
12/24
6
W
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/16
-15
L
L
U
10/23
34
W
W
O
10/30
10
W
P
U
11/06
18
W
W
U
11/13
28
W
W
O
11/27
7
W
W
U
12/04
7
W
W
U
12/11
1
W
W
O
12/18
-15
L
L
U
12/22
-3
L
L
U