TENTitans
8-7
23
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
022
HOUTexans
10-5
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
13
3
7
23
Texans
7
3
3
9
22
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
361
387
Total Plays
60
66
Yards / Play
6.0
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.05
-0.01
Passing Yards
275
235
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
7.3
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.07
Rushing Yards
86
152
Rush Attempts
22
31
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
22
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
43%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.18
-5.31
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-22
-23
Sack EPA
-5.11
-8.08
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
47
55
Penalty EPA
-5.12
-4.18
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
+1.0
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model47.5%
Spread Pick
Texans+2.5
Expected Value
+3.5%
Cover Probability
54.2%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+71
Home nfelo
1,625
Away nfelo
1,497
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-91.3
Home QB Adjustment
-100.3
Away QB Adjustment
-9.0
Market Regression
-14.5
Final Difference
17.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Hasselbeck
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-9.0
T. Yates
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-100.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
4
Yards / Game
17
2
Passing Yards / Game
11
11
Rushing Yards / Game
32
2
EPA
EPA / Play
16
2
EPA / Pass
16
1
EPA / Rush
28
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
24
Interceptions / Game
13
12
Fumbles / Game
12
22
Turnover EPA / Game
19
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
13
4th Down Efficiency
1
10
RZ Efficiency
5
11
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
13
18
Passing Yards / Game
25
13
Rushing Yards / Game
2
22
EPA
EPA / Play
14
15
EPA / Pass
10
17
EPA / Rush
11
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
4
24
Fumbles / Game
20
4
Turnover EPA / Game
20
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
23
4th Down Efficiency
30
12
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Texans
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U