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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ texans week 17, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TEN logo
TENTitans
10-5
41
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
38
HOUTexans
4-11
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
14
14
10
41
Texans
3
6
19
10
38

Spread

HOU logo
+7

Total

OVER
55.5

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
492
457
Total Plays
70
62
Yards / Play
7.0
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.27
Passing Yards
204
361
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
29/41(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.31
Rushing Yards
288
96
Rush Attempts
41
17
Yards / Rush
7.0
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.27
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
28
26
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
17
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
70%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
80%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.46
-3.88
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-12
-24
Sack EPA
-3.84
-5.08
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
50
44
Penalty EPA
-3.97
-6.00

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model72.1%
Spread Pick
HOU logo
Texans+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-126
Home nfelo
1,425
Away nfelo
1,564
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.4
Home QB Adjustment
+22.4
Away QB Adjustment
+13.1
Market Regression
+0.9
Final Difference
-164.6
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
Value
Ptile
10/25
2.6
64
11/01
-0.1
46
11/08
-3.3
22
11/12
-2.1
29
11/22
3.9
73
11/29
1.7
56
12/06
3.6
71
12/13
1.1
52
12/20
9.4
95
12/27
-2.8
25
D. Watson headshot

D. Watson

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+22.4
Value
Ptile
10/18
9.9
96
10/25
6.5
86
11/08
2.5
63
11/15
-1.0
38
11/22
13.3
99
11/26
5.7
81
12/06
0.9
51
12/13
-3.2
23
12/20
5.8
82
12/27
7.9
91

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
4
27
Yards / Game
4
30
Passing Yards / Game
15
20
Rushing Yards / Game
2
32

EPA

EPA / Play
3
31
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
2
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
2
Interceptions / Game
3
32
Fumbles / Game
2
18
Turnover EPA / Game
31
1

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
29
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
2
24
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
18
24
Yards / Game
11
28
Passing Yards / Game
3
4
Rushing Yards / Game
31
24

EPA

EPA / Play
10
28
EPA / Pass
6
27
EPA / Rush
23
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
2
7
Fumbles / Game
20
21
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
32
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
25
30

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-3
L
L
P
11/01
-11
L
L
O
11/08
7
W
W
U
11/12
-17
L
L
O
11/22
6
W
W
O
11/29
19
W
W
O
12/06
-6
L
L
O
12/13
21
W
W
U
12/20
21
W
W
O
12/27
-26
L
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
-6
L
L
O
10/25
-15
L
L
U
11/08
2
W
L
O
11/15
-3
L
W
U
11/22
7
W
W
U
11/26
16
W
W
O
12/06
-6
L
L
U
12/13
-29
L
L
U
12/20
-7
L
W
U
12/27
-6
L
L
O