TENTitans
10-5
41
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
038
HOUTexans
4-11
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
3
14
14
10
41
Texans
3
6
19
10
38
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
55.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
492
457
Total Plays
70
62
Yards / Play
7.0
7.4
EPA / Play
+0.30
+0.27
Passing Yards
204
361
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
29/41(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
8.8
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.31
Rushing Yards
288
96
Rush Attempts
41
17
Yards / Rush
7.0
5.6
EPA / Rush
+0.27
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
26
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
17
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
70%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
12
Red Zone %
80%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.46
-3.88
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-12
-24
Sack EPA
-3.84
-5.08
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
50
44
Penalty EPA
-3.97
-6.00
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model72.1%
Spread Pick
Texans+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-126
Home nfelo
1,428
Away nfelo
1,567
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.4
Home QB Adjustment
+22.4
Away QB Adjustment
+13.1
Market Regression
+0.9
Final Difference
-164.6
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+13.1
D. Watson
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+22.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
27
Yards / Game
4
30
Passing Yards / Game
15
20
Rushing Yards / Game
2
32
EPA
EPA / Play
3
31
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
2
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
2
Interceptions / Game
3
32
Fumbles / Game
2
18
Turnover EPA / Game
31
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
29
4th Down Efficiency
6
14
RZ Efficiency
2
24
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
24
Yards / Game
11
28
Passing Yards / Game
3
4
Rushing Yards / Game
31
24
EPA
EPA / Play
10
28
EPA / Pass
6
27
EPA / Rush
23
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
26
Interceptions / Game
2
7
Fumbles / Game
20
21
Turnover EPA / Game
27
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
32
4th Down Efficiency
18
19
RZ Efficiency
25
30
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Texans
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U