TENTitans
5-10
3
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
026
HOUTexans
8-7
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
3
0
0
3
Texans
3
11
3
3
20
Spread
-5.5
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
187
312
Total Plays
53
61
Yards / Play
3.5
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.46
+0.07
Passing Yards
134
201
Comp/Att
18/26(69%)
24/32(75%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.3
EPA / Pass
-0.46
+0.13
Rushing Yards
53
111
Rush Attempts
21
28
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.51
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
20
Passing 1st downs
7
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
8%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
1
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-8.13
--
Sacks
6
1
Sack Yards
-50
-12
Sack EPA
-15.16
-2.00
Penalties
3
1
Penalty Yards
15
--
Penalty EPA
-4.43
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model68.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+104
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,433
Home Field
+41.2
Base HFA
+45.9
Divisional Adj
-20.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+56.2
Home QB Adjustment
+22.0
Away QB Adjustment
-34.2
Market Regression
+14.9
Final Difference
130.9
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
W. Levis
Proj. Value
-4.2
Team Elo Adj
-34.2
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+22.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
11
Yards / Game
28
15
Passing Yards / Game
18
6
Rushing Yards / Game
18
8
EPA
EPA / Play
16
13
EPA / Pass
21
16
EPA / Rush
13
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
15
Interceptions / Game
10
15
Fumbles / Game
6
25
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
11
18
RZ Efficiency
28
15
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
15
Yards / Game
15
17
Passing Yards / Game
21
19
Rushing Yards / Game
28
14
EPA
EPA / Play
14
28
EPA / Pass
11
30
EPA / Rush
27
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
4
Interceptions / Game
1
32
Fumbles / Game
13
13
Turnover EPA / Game
32
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
18
4th Down Efficiency
31
26
RZ Efficiency
16
1
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Texans
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U