TENTitans
11-5
28
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
025
HOUTexans
4-12
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
21
0
7
28
Texans
0
0
10
15
25
Spread
+10.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
405
355
Total Plays
65
57
Yards / Play
6.2
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.14
Passing Yards
281
291
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.59
+0.31
Rushing Yards
124
64
Rush Attempts
32
21
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
62%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-12
Sack EPA
-2.37
-2.99
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
42
65
Penalty EPA
-3.81
-5.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market81.3%
Model81.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-224
Home nfelo
1,340
Away nfelo
1,573
Home Field
+32.5
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.7
Home QB Adjustment
-43.4
Away QB Adjustment
-19.7
Market Regression
+4.7
Final Difference
-255.3
Model Spread
+10.5
Quarterbacks
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-19.7
D. Mills
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-43.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
27
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
20
26
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31
EPA
EPA / Play
17
26
EPA / Pass
16
26
EPA / Rush
10
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
9
Interceptions / Game
25
8
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
10
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
26
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
9
20
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
32
11
Passing Yards / Game
22
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
1
EPA
EPA / Play
30
8
EPA / Pass
28
10
EPA / Rush
30
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
8
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
21
RZ Efficiency
27
4
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Titans
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Texans
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U