nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. titans @ texans week 18, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

TEN logo
TENTitans
11-5
28
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
25
HOUTexans
4-12
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Titans
0
21
0
7
28
Texans
0
0
10
15
25

Spread

HOU logo
+10.5

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Titans logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
405
355
Total Plays
65
57
Yards / Play
6.2
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.14
Passing Yards
281
291
Comp/Att
23/32(72%)
23/34(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.59
+0.31
Rushing Yards
124
64
Rush Attempts
32
21
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Titans logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
23
18
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
62%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Titans logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-12
Sack EPA
-2.37
-2.99
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
42
65
Penalty EPA
-3.81
-5.93

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
-11.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market81.3%
Model81.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-221
Home nfelo
1,340
Away nfelo
1,570
Home Field
+33.3
Base HFA
+37.0
Divisional Adj
-16.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-23.7
Home QB Adjustment
-43.4
Away QB Adjustment
-19.7
Market Regression
+4.1
Final Difference
-255.3
Model Spread
+10.5

Quarterbacks

R. Tannehill headshot

R. Tannehill

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-19.7
Value
Ptile
10/24
1.9
67
10/31
0.2
55
11/07
-2.0
38
11/14
1.6
65
11/21
-5.6
16
11/28
-4.3
23
12/12
-3.1
30
12/19
-3.3
28
12/23
-0.8
46
01/02
0.7
58
D. Mills headshot

D. Mills

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-43.4
Value
Ptile
09/23
-3.9
25
10/03
-15.2
0
10/10
5.4
85
10/17
-6.2
14
10/24
-3.6
27
10/31
1.5
64
12/12
2.9
75
12/19
-2.2
36
12/26
3.7
79
01/02
-5.3
17

Team Matchup Ranks

Titans Offense vs Texans Defense
Titans logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
14
27
Yards / Game
17
31
Passing Yards / Game
20
26
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31

EPA

EPA / Play
17
26
EPA / Pass
16
26
EPA / Rush
10
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
9
Interceptions / Game
25
8
Fumbles / Game
27
18
Turnover EPA / Game
10
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
26
4th Down Efficiency
8
20
RZ Efficiency
9
20
Texans Offense vs Titans Defense
Texans logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
30
6
Yards / Game
32
11
Passing Yards / Game
22
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
1

EPA

EPA / Play
30
8
EPA / Pass
28
10
EPA / Rush
30
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
8
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
13
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
6
4th Down Efficiency
27
21
RZ Efficiency
27
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TEN logo

Titans

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
24
W
W
U
10/31
3
W
W
O
11/07
12
W
W
U
11/14
2
W
L
P
11/21
-9
L
L
U
11/28
-23
L
L
O
12/12
20
W
W
U
12/19
-6
L
L
U
12/23
3
W
W
U
01/02
31
W
W
U
HOU logo

Texans

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
-26
L
L
U
10/31
-16
L
W
O
11/07
-8
L
L
U
11/21
9
W
W
U
11/28
-7
L
L
U
12/05
-31
L
L
U
12/12
-20
L
L
O
12/19
14
W
W
O
12/26
12
W
W
O
01/02
-16
L
L
U