MINVikings
11-6
10
TBD
Levi's Stadium
56°F
11 mph
27
SF49ers
13-3
TBD
Levi's Stadium
56°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
3
0
0
10
49ers
7
7
10
3
27
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
147
308
Total Plays
45
68
Yards / Play
3.3
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.35
+0.05
Passing Yards
126
122
Comp/Att
21/29(72%)
11/19(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.53
-0.04
Rushing Yards
21
186
Rush Attempts
10
47
Yards / Rush
2.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.49
+0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
7
21
Passing 1st downs
6
9
Rushing 1st downs
--
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
17%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-3.32
-0.74
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-46
-9
Sack EPA
-8.75
-2.71
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
38
Penalty EPA
--
+0.15
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+139
Home nfelo
1,627
Away nfelo
1,580
Home Field
+83.1
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+13.1
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.0
Time Adj
+8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-2.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.8
Away QB Adjustment
+5.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.6
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+2.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
7
Yards / Game
18
2
Passing Yards / Game
32
2
Rushing Yards / Game
8
12
EPA
EPA / Play
10
3
EPA / Pass
9
2
EPA / Rush
13
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
22
Interceptions / Game
7
7
Fumbles / Game
25
5
Turnover EPA / Game
21
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
2
4th Down Efficiency
16
8
RZ Efficiency
10
27
49ers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
6
Yards / Game
8
13
Passing Yards / Game
15
24
Rushing Yards / Game
2
17
EPA
EPA / Play
4
5
EPA / Pass
5
6
EPA / Rush
8
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
23
Interceptions / Game
20
3
Fumbles / Game
26
3
Turnover EPA / Game
13
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
19
4th Down Efficiency
12
22
RZ Efficiency
19
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
49ers
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-2-1
O/U