MINVikings
0-1
30
TBD
Soldier Field
60°F
6 mph
31
CHIBears
1-0
TBD
Soldier Field
60°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
8
3
6
24
Bears
14
4
0
7
25
Spread
+6
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
350
411
Total Plays
64
66
Yards / Play
5.5
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.09
+0.04
Passing Yards
227
284
Comp/Att
16/30(53%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.6
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.01
-0.07
Rushing Yards
123
127
Rush Attempts
33
27
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.12
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
24
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
44%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
4
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-14.83
-24.32
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
--
-8
Sack EPA
-0.70
-9.74
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
25
35
Penalty EPA
-2.09
-6.43
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+129
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.9
Home QB Adjustment
+5.7
Away QB Adjustment
-6.2
Market Regression
-14.1
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
30
Yards / Game
15
29
Passing Yards / Game
21
13
Rushing Yards / Game
9
32
EPA
EPA / Play
15
31
EPA / Pass
27
16
EPA / Rush
1
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
30
Interceptions / Game
20
7
Fumbles / Game
29
20
Turnover EPA / Game
8
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
25
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
17
20
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
32
Yards / Game
7
31
Passing Yards / Game
7
32
Rushing Yards / Game
15
16
EPA
EPA / Play
7
29
EPA / Pass
6
29
EPA / Rush
8
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
11
Interceptions / Game
12
25
Fumbles / Game
17
27
Turnover EPA / Game
11
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
30
4th Down Efficiency
8
25
RZ Efficiency
7
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U