MINVikings
1-4
10
TBD
Soldier Field
56°F
11 mph
39
CHIBears
2-3
TBD
Soldier Field
56°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
3
7
0
10
Bears
14
10
10
3
37
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
286
377
Total Plays
64
60
Yards / Play
4.5
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.26
Passing Yards
233
258
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.26
Rushing Yards
53
119
Rush Attempts
17
28
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.52
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-43
-9
Sack EPA
-7.95
-4.52
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-5.71
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+76
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,490
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.9
Home QB Adjustment
-4.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.0
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
18
17
Passing Yards / Game
17
22
Rushing Yards / Game
4
5
EPA
EPA / Play
20
4
EPA / Pass
29
9
EPA / Rush
2
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
5
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
24
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
14
RZ Efficiency
8
7
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
31
Yards / Game
25
20
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
9
10
EPA
EPA / Play
24
28
EPA / Pass
30
31
EPA / Rush
19
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
5
Interceptions / Game
25
31
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
29
4th Down Efficiency
30
26
RZ Efficiency
12
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bears
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U