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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ bears week 6, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
1-4
10
TBD
Soldier Field
56°F
11 mph
39
CHIBears
2-3
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
56°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
3
7
0
10
Bears
14
10
10
3
37

Spread

CHI logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
286
377
Total Plays
64
60
Yards / Play
4.5
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.26
Passing Yards
233
258
Comp/Att
28/42(67%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
8.3
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.26
Rushing Yards
53
119
Rush Attempts
17
28
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
15
22
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
40%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.52
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-43
-9
Sack EPA
-7.95
-4.52
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-5.71
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+79
Home nfelo
1,512
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.9
Home QB Adjustment
-4.9
Away QB Adjustment
-4.0
Market Regression
-22.8
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

D. McNabb headshot

D. McNabb

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
Value
Ptile
11/15
-2.2
34
11/21
1.9
60
11/28
-4.3
21
12/05
-3.2
28
12/12
3.1
70
09/11
-5.0
19
09/18
-0.9
45
09/25
-1.4
42
10/02
-1.0
44
10/09
-1.3
42
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.9
Value
Ptile
12/20
1.3
56
12/26
2.6
66
01/02
-10.2
3
01/16
6.6
89
01/23
-6.0
13
09/11
-0.1
51
09/18
-7.1
9
09/25
-0.9
45
10/02
-6.1
13
10/10
2.2
67

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Vikings logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
18
17
Passing Yards / Game
17
22
Rushing Yards / Game
4
5

EPA

EPA / Play
20
4
EPA / Pass
29
9
EPA / Rush
2
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
5
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
24
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
9
4th Down Efficiency
17
14
RZ Efficiency
8
7
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Bears logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
17
31
Yards / Game
25
20
Passing Yards / Game
30
26
Rushing Yards / Game
9
10

EPA

EPA / Play
24
28
EPA / Pass
30
31
EPA / Rush
19
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
5
Interceptions / Game
25
31
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
8
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
29
4th Down Efficiency
30
26
RZ Efficiency
12
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
24
W
W
O
12/13
-18
L
L
U
12/20
-26
L
L
O
12/28
10
W
W
U
01/02
-7
L
L
U
09/11
-7
L
W
U
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/25
-3
L
P
O
10/02
-5
L
L
U
10/09
24
W
W
U
CHI logo

Bears

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/20
26
W
W
O
12/26
4
W
W
O
01/02
-7
L
W
U
01/16
11
W
W
O
01/23
-7
L
L
U
09/11
18
W
W
O
09/18
-17
L
L
U
09/25
-10
L
L
U
10/02
5
W
L
O
10/10
-11
L
L
U