MINVikings
5-1
10
TBD
Soldier Field
58°F
12 mph
20
CHIBears
1-6
TBD
Soldier Field
58°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
3
0
7
10
Bears
3
10
7
0
20
Spread
+5.5
Total
UNDER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
258
403
Total Plays
60
61
Yards / Play
4.3
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.11
Passing Yards
201
245
Comp/Att
23/37(62%)
20/31(65%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.27
Rushing Yards
57
158
Rush Attempts
18
29
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.4
EPA / Rush
-0.19
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
19
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
1
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
15%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-27
-7
Sack EPA
-5.38
-1.51
Penalties
1
2
Penalty Yards
--
20
Penalty EPA
--
-2.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-142
Home nfelo
1,431
Away nfelo
1,563
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-61.8
Home QB Adjustment
-31.5
Away QB Adjustment
+30.2
Market Regression
-8.0
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+30.2
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-31.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
23
Yards / Game
28
14
Passing Yards / Game
30
2
Rushing Yards / Game
32
26
EPA
EPA / Play
23
26
EPA / Pass
14
24
EPA / Rush
32
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
25
Interceptions / Game
2
29
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
22
4th Down Efficiency
22
28
RZ Efficiency
29
10
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
14
3
Passing Yards / Game
17
4
Rushing Yards / Game
16
19
EPA
EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
22
2
EPA / Rush
22
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
10
Interceptions / Game
28
14
Fumbles / Game
25
2
Turnover EPA / Game
4
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
15
4th Down Efficiency
31
2
RZ Efficiency
22
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
8-2
SU
9-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bears
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U