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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ bears week 11, 2014

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
4-5
13
TBD
Soldier Field
31°F
12 mph
21
CHIBears
3-6
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
31°F
12 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
10
0
0
3
13
Bears
0
14
0
7
21

Spread

CHI logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
243
468
Total Plays
46
74
Yards / Play
5.3
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.04
Passing Yards
147
--
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
31/43(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.27
Rushing Yards
96
138
Rush Attempts
16
31
Yards / Rush
6.0
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
10
24
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
18%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
2
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.18
-7.31
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-1.61
--
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
18
60
Penalty EPA
-1.72
-7.27

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CHI logo
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model50.4%
Spread Pick
MIN logo
Vikings+2.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,440
Away nfelo
1,460
Home Field
+7.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+19.5
Market Regression
-10.5
Final Difference
2.6
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+19.5
Value
Ptile
09/28
6.0
86
10/12
-13.6
0
10/19
-8.6
7
10/26
-1.2
42
11/02
1.5
61
J. Cutler headshot

J. Cutler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Value
Ptile
12/29
0.3
52
09/07
4.3
78
09/14
6.9
89
09/22
-0.6
46
09/28
1.7
63
10/05
3.3
73
10/12
3.8
76
10/19
-4.0
25
10/26
1.1
57
11/09
-4.7
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Vikings logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
20
31
Yards / Game
26
30
Passing Yards / Game
26
32
Rushing Yards / Game
14
16

EPA

EPA / Play
18
29
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
2
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
1
21
Turnover EPA / Game
20
17

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
21
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
13
12
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Bears logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
23
11
Yards / Game
20
14
Passing Yards / Game
18
12
Rushing Yards / Game
27
24

EPA

EPA / Play
22
14
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
6
28

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
5
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
22
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
9

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
20
4th Down Efficiency
18
31
RZ Efficiency
2
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
1
W
W
U
09/07
28
W
W
U
09/14
-23
L
L
U
09/21
-11
L
L
U
09/28
13
W
W
O
10/02
-32
L
L
O
10/12
-14
L
L
U
10/19
-1
L
W
U
10/26
6
W
W
U
11/02
3
W
W
O
CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-5
L
L
O
09/07
-3
L
L
U
09/14
8
W
W
O
09/22
8
W
W
O
09/28
-21
L
L
O
10/05
-7
L
L
O
10/12
14
W
W
U
10/19
-13
L
L
U
10/26
-28
L
L
O
11/09
-41
L
L
O