MINVikings
4-5
13
TBD
Soldier Field
31°F
12 mph
21
CHIBears
3-6
TBD
Soldier Field
31°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
10
0
0
3
13
Bears
0
14
0
7
21
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
243
468
Total Plays
46
74
Yards / Play
5.3
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.04
Passing Yards
147
--
Comp/Att
18/28(64%)
31/43(72%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.15
+0.27
Rushing Yards
96
138
Rush Attempts
16
31
Yards / Rush
6.0
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
24
Passing 1st downs
7
16
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
18%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
2
10
3rd Down Attempts
11
17
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.18
-7.31
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-11
--
Sack EPA
-1.61
--
Penalties
2
7
Penalty Yards
18
60
Penalty EPA
-1.72
-7.27
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model50.5%
Spread Pick
Vikings+2.5
Expected Value
+2.7%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-29
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,462
Home Field
+7.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-17.4
Home QB Adjustment
+2.1
Away QB Adjustment
+19.5
Market Regression
-9.6
Final Difference
3.5
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+19.5
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
31
Yards / Game
26
30
Passing Yards / Game
26
32
Rushing Yards / Game
14
16
EPA
EPA / Play
18
29
EPA / Pass
24
31
EPA / Rush
2
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
13
Interceptions / Game
26
16
Fumbles / Game
1
21
Turnover EPA / Game
20
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
22
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
13
12
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
11
Yards / Game
20
14
Passing Yards / Game
18
12
Rushing Yards / Game
27
24
EPA
EPA / Play
22
14
EPA / Pass
26
18
EPA / Rush
6
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
5
Interceptions / Game
30
19
Fumbles / Game
22
27
Turnover EPA / Game
8
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
20
4th Down Efficiency
18
31
RZ Efficiency
2
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bears
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U