MINVikings
6-4
10
TBD
Soldier Field
41°F
5 mph
28
CHIBears
7-3
TBD
Soldier Field
41°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
0
7
0
10
Bears
10
15
3
0
28
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
258
298
Total Plays
65
72
Yards / Play
4.0
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.30
-0.03
Passing Yards
144
183
Comp/Att
22/43(51%)
23/31(74%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.01
Rushing Yards
114
115
Rush Attempts
20
40
Yards / Rush
5.7
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.33
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
6
11
3rd Down Attempts
16
19
Red Zone %
33%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-14.33
-11.77
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-5
Sack EPA
-3.27
-1.15
Penalties
3
5
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-5.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CHIBearsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model71.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+126
Home nfelo
1,569
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+7.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.1
Home QB Adjustment
+4.4
Away QB Adjustment
+0.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
155.5
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
2
Yards / Game
20
5
Passing Yards / Game
30
24
Rushing Yards / Game
3
7
EPA
EPA / Play
14
1
EPA / Pass
22
1
EPA / Rush
4
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
8
Interceptions / Game
8
1
Fumbles / Game
21
1
Turnover EPA / Game
20
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
5
4th Down Efficiency
16
26
RZ Efficiency
17
12
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
16
Yards / Game
28
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
30
Rushing Yards / Game
10
10
EPA
EPA / Play
24
15
EPA / Pass
26
24
EPA / Rush
18
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
21
Interceptions / Game
18
29
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
22
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
24
RZ Efficiency
22
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U