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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ bears week 15, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
6-7
17
TBD
Soldier Field
37°F
8 mph
9
CHIBears
4-9
CHI logo
TBD
Soldier Field
37°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
3
7
0
17
Bears
0
3
0
6
9

Spread

MIN logo
-7

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Bears logo
Total Yards
193
370
Total Plays
61
70
Yards / Play
3.2
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.19
Passing Yards
61
255
Comp/Att
12/24(50%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
2.5
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.08
Rushing Yards
132
115
Rush Attempts
33
28
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Bears logo
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
29%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
67%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Bears logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
+3.11
-9.24
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-26
-30
Sack EPA
-5.95
-8.47
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
54
91
Penalty EPA
-5.33
-12.53

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model70.7%
Spread Pick
CHI logo
Bears+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-118
Home nfelo
1,400
Away nfelo
1,516
Home Field
+20.4
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
-16.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.5
Home QB Adjustment
-15.9
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
-61.3
Final Difference
-153.0
Model Spread
+6.5

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
Value
Ptile
10/03
-5.9
15
10/10
-1.4
43
10/17
10.7
97
10/31
0.1
54
11/07
3.3
76
11/14
2.9
75
11/21
6.4
89
11/28
-0.4
50
12/05
3.6
79
12/09
-2.5
34
J. Fields headshot

J. Fields

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-15.9
Value
Ptile
09/26
-18.2
0
10/03
-5.6
16
10/10
-5.7
16
10/17
-4.1
24
10/24
-9.3
5
10/31
2.9
74
11/08
0.6
57
11/21
-5.6
16
12/12
0.6
57

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Vikings logo
Bears logo

Total

Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
15
6
Rushing Yards / Game
17
22

EPA

EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
12
20
EPA / Rush
26
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
2
29
Fumbles / Game
7
11
Turnover EPA / Game
30
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
11
4th Down Efficiency
15
11
RZ Efficiency
10
14
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Bears logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
27
24
Yards / Game
24
30
Passing Yards / Game
21
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
26

EPA

EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
18
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
29
Interceptions / Game
29
12
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
4
4th Down Efficiency
28
11
RZ Efficiency
30
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
-7
L
L
U
10/10
2
W
L
U
10/17
6
W
W
O
10/31
-4
L
L
U
11/07
-3
L
W
O
11/14
7
W
W
U
11/21
3
W
W
O
11/28
-8
L
L
O
12/05
-2
L
L
O
12/09
8
W
W
O
CHI logo

Bears

3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
10
W
W
U
10/10
11
W
W
U
10/17
-10
L
L
U
10/24
-35
L
L
U
10/31
-11
L
L
O
11/08
-2
L
W
O
11/21
-3
L
W
U
11/25
2
W
P
U
12/05
-11
L
L
O
12/12
-15
L
L
O