MINVikings
6-7
17
TBD
Soldier Field
37°F
8 mph
9
CHIBears
4-9
TBD
Soldier Field
37°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
3
7
0
17
Bears
0
3
0
6
9
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
193
370
Total Plays
61
70
Yards / Play
3.2
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.19
Passing Yards
61
255
Comp/Att
12/24(50%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
2.5
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.28
-0.08
Rushing Yards
132
115
Rush Attempts
33
28
Yards / Rush
4.0
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
5
13
Rushing 1st downs
4
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
29%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
67%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
+3.11
-9.24
Sacks
4
3
Sack Yards
-26
-30
Sack EPA
-5.95
-8.47
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
54
91
Penalty EPA
-5.33
-12.53
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model69.8%
Spread Pick
Bears+7.0
Expected Value
+6.2%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-115
Home nfelo
1,404
Away nfelo
1,517
Home Field
+20.4
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
-16.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-22.5
Home QB Adjustment
-15.9
Away QB Adjustment
+6.6
Market Regression
-54.2
Final Difference
-145.9
Model Spread
+6.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+6.6
J. Fields
Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-15.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
21
Yards / Game
10
5
Passing Yards / Game
15
6
Rushing Yards / Game
17
22
EPA
EPA / Play
18
16
EPA / Pass
12
20
EPA / Rush
26
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
2
29
Fumbles / Game
7
11
Turnover EPA / Game
30
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
11
4th Down Efficiency
15
11
RZ Efficiency
10
14
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
27
24
Yards / Game
24
30
Passing Yards / Game
21
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
26
EPA
EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
30
6
EPA / Rush
18
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
29
Interceptions / Game
29
12
Fumbles / Game
20
18
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
4
4th Down Efficiency
28
11
RZ Efficiency
30
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Bears
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U