MINVikings
11-3
30
TBD
Soldier Field
26°F
9 mph
36
CHIBears
5-9
TBD
Soldier Field
26°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Vikings
0
0
13
17
0
30
Bears
3
13
7
7
6
36
Spread
+8.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
423
363
Total Plays
76
65
Yards / Play
5.6
5.6
EPA / Play
+0.17
+0.24
Passing Yards
300
258
Comp/Att
26/40(65%)
20/35(57%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.20
Rushing Yards
123
105
Rush Attempts
33
28
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.8
EPA / Rush
-0.06
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
19
Passing 1st downs
17
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-6.98
-2.07
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-21
-15
Sack EPA
-6.74
-3.27
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
47
31
Penalty EPA
-5.11
-3.55
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.5
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market77.4%
Model76.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-164
Home nfelo
1,441
Away nfelo
1,613
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-47.2
Home QB Adjustment
-24.7
Away QB Adjustment
+22.5
Market Regression
-13.7
Final Difference
-203.6
Model Spread
+8.0
Quarterbacks
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+22.5
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-24.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
21
Yards / Game
6
17
Passing Yards / Game
15
19
Rushing Yards / Game
11
24
EPA
EPA / Play
5
18
EPA / Pass
3
20
EPA / Rush
32
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
14
Interceptions / Game
1
22
Fumbles / Game
24
3
Turnover EPA / Game
25
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
27
4th Down Efficiency
8
11
RZ Efficiency
3
31
Bears Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
8
Yards / Game
23
4
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
29
1
EPA
EPA / Play
24
3
EPA / Pass
23
12
EPA / Rush
21
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
19
Interceptions / Game
30
27
Fumbles / Game
4
5
Turnover EPA / Game
3
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
2
4th Down Efficiency
25
4
RZ Efficiency
25
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Bears
2-8
SU
1-9
ATS
2-8
O/U