MINVikings
7-6
24
TBD
Paycor Stadium
53°F
5 mph
27
CINBengals
7-6
TBD
Paycor Stadium
53°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Vikings
7
0
10
7
0
24
Bengals
3
0
0
21
3
27
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
424
378
Total Plays
67
69
Yards / Play
6.3
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.10
Passing Yards
281
298
Comp/Att
26/34(76%)
29/42(69%)
Yards / Pass
8.3
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.19
Rushing Yards
143
80
Rush Attempts
30
22
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.06
+0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
16
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
42%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.10
-3.94
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-22
-26
Sack EPA
-3.45
-5.86
Penalties
4
3
Penalty Yards
--
26
Penalty EPA
--
-4.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+53.5
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.1
Net QB Adjustment
-27.5
Home QB Adjustment
-73.1
Away QB Adjustment
-45.6
Market Regression
+47.0
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
N. Mullens
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-45.6
J. Browning
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-73.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
20
Yards / Game
11
31
Passing Yards / Game
2
30
Rushing Yards / Game
29
26
EPA
EPA / Play
21
26
EPA / Pass
17
25
EPA / Rush
17
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
7
Interceptions / Game
29
5
Fumbles / Game
29
21
Turnover EPA / Game
5
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
23
4th Down Efficiency
8
8
RZ Efficiency
29
10
Bengals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
12
Yards / Game
23
16
Passing Yards / Game
9
28
Rushing Yards / Game
32
6
EPA
EPA / Play
12
16
EPA / Pass
15
21
EPA / Rush
15
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
10
Interceptions / Game
19
19
Fumbles / Game
1
8
Turnover EPA / Game
25
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
24
4th Down Efficiency
25
32
RZ Efficiency
10
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
7-3
SU
7-2-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Bengals
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U