MINVikings
2-4
16
TBD
New Era Field
41°F
9 mph
17
BUFBills
3-3
TBD
New Era Field
41°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
10
0
3
16
Bills
0
10
0
7
17
Spread
+6.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
276
373
Total Plays
60
68
Yards / Play
4.6
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.11
Passing Yards
118
255
Comp/Att
15/26(58%)
31/43(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.29
-0.19
Rushing Yards
158
118
Rush Attempts
29
19
Yards / Rush
5.4
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.10
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
22
Passing 1st downs
8
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
31%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-8.23
-14.96
Sacks
5
6
Sack Yards
-39
-28
Sack EPA
-6.79
-12.39
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
50
48
Penalty EPA
-4.64
-7.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model70.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+120
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,448
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+8.1
Home QB Adjustment
+30.3
Away QB Adjustment
+22.3
Market Regression
+42.9
Final Difference
148.2
Model Spread
-6.5
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+22.3
Value
Ptile
K. Orton
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+30.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
4
Yards / Game
26
4
Passing Yards / Game
26
14
Rushing Yards / Game
14
10
EPA
EPA / Play
18
1
EPA / Pass
24
1
EPA / Rush
2
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
15
Interceptions / Game
26
5
Fumbles / Game
1
10
Turnover EPA / Game
20
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
1
4th Down Efficiency
14
14
RZ Efficiency
13
10
Bills Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
11
Yards / Game
24
14
Passing Yards / Game
11
12
Rushing Yards / Game
25
24
EPA
EPA / Play
25
14
EPA / Pass
21
18
EPA / Rush
28
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
5
Interceptions / Game
11
19
Fumbles / Game
15
27
Turnover EPA / Game
24
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
20
4th Down Efficiency
20
31
RZ Efficiency
30
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bills
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U