MINVikings
7-1
33
TBD
New Era Field
38°F
11 mph
30
BUFBills
6-2
TBD
New Era Field
38°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Vikings
7
3
7
7
3
27
Bills
14
10
3
3
0
30
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
481
486
Total Plays
79
72
Yards / Play
6.1
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.04
-0.03
Passing Yards
334
311
Comp/Att
30/50(60%)
29/43(67%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.10
+0.06
Rushing Yards
147
175
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
5.9
6.5
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
29
Passing 1st downs
14
17
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
41%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
25%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
4
Interceptions
2
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-11.88
-20.82
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-23
-19
Sack EPA
-4.78
-5.05
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
64
64
Penalty EPA
-6.78
-7.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model73.8%
Spread Pick
Bills-7.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+215
Home nfelo
1,688
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+46.5
Base HFA
+39.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
+12.0
Home QB Adjustment
+7.0
Away QB Adjustment
-5.1
Market Regression
+1.7
Final Difference
180.1
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
+7.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
4
Yards / Game
5
7
Passing Yards / Game
3
25
Rushing Yards / Game
29
6
EPA
EPA / Play
17
6
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
28
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
17
Interceptions / Game
21
4
Fumbles / Game
18
13
Turnover EPA / Game
10
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
22
RZ Efficiency
8
2
Bills Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
30
Yards / Game
2
31
Passing Yards / Game
2
26
Rushing Yards / Game
8
21
EPA
EPA / Play
3
26
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
7
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
11
Interceptions / Game
26
12
Fumbles / Game
31
24
Turnover EPA / Game
2
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
15
4th Down Efficiency
16
6
RZ Efficiency
9
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
8-2
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U