MINVikings
6-4
20
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
53°F
3 mph
21
DENBroncos
4-5
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
53°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
10
7
3
20
Broncos
3
6
0
12
21
Spread
+2.5
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
385
295
Total Plays
70
53
Yards / Play
5.5
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.09
Passing Yards
210
249
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
27/35(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.04
Rushing Yards
175
46
Rush Attempts
36
16
Yards / Rush
4.9
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
13
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
40%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-15.93
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-10
Sack EPA
-2.30
-3.12
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
--
48
Penalty EPA
--
-5.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+50
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+67.5
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
+58.9
Home QB Adjustment
+5.2
Away QB Adjustment
-53.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
R. Dobbs
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-53.7
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
27
Yards / Game
11
29
Passing Yards / Game
2
14
Rushing Yards / Game
29
30
EPA
EPA / Play
21
24
EPA / Pass
17
26
EPA / Rush
17
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
6
Interceptions / Game
29
19
Fumbles / Game
29
1
Turnover EPA / Game
5
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
2
4th Down Efficiency
8
10
RZ Efficiency
29
21
Broncos Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
12
Yards / Game
26
16
Passing Yards / Game
13
28
Rushing Yards / Game
19
6
EPA
EPA / Play
20
16
EPA / Pass
20
21
EPA / Rush
19
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
10
Interceptions / Game
4
19
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
15
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
4
32
RZ Efficiency
19
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Broncos
5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U