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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ broncos week 11, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
6-4
20
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
53°F
3 mph
21
DENBroncos
4-5
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
53°F
3 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
10
7
3
20
Broncos
3
6
0
12
21

Spread

MIN logo
+2.5

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
385
295
Total Plays
70
53
Yards / Play
5.5
5.6
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.09
Passing Yards
210
249
Comp/Att
20/32(63%)
27/35(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.04
Rushing Yards
175
46
Rush Attempts
36
16
Yards / Rush
4.9
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.38
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
19
13
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
40%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
15
12
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-15.93
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-10
Sack EPA
-2.30
-3.12
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
--
48
Penalty EPA
--
-5.39

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+50
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,539
Home Field
+67.4
Base HFA
+44.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.4
Time Adj
+7.9
Net QB Adjustment
+59.0
Home QB Adjustment
+5.4
Away QB Adjustment
-53.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

R. Dobbs headshot

R. Dobbs

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-53.6
Value
Ptile
01/07
-4.1
23
09/10
-5.1
19
09/17
7.3
92
09/24
5.1
82
10/01
7.2
92
10/08
-7.8
9
10/15
-2.6
32
10/22
-2.6
32
10/29
2.2
65
11/12
7.8
93
R. Wilson headshot

R. Wilson

Proj. Value
+0.2
Team Elo Adj
+5.4
Value
Ptile
01/08
2.3
71
09/10
1.5
59
09/17
0.2
51
09/24
0.2
51
10/01
4.4
78
10/08
1.7
61
10/12
-8.8
6
10/22
2.7
68
10/29
-2.8
30
11/13
2.8
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Broncos Defense
Vikings logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
22
27
Yards / Game
11
29
Passing Yards / Game
2
14
Rushing Yards / Game
29
30

EPA

EPA / Play
21
24
EPA / Pass
17
26
EPA / Rush
17
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
6
Interceptions / Game
29
19
Fumbles / Game
29
1
Turnover EPA / Game
5
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
2
4th Down Efficiency
8
10
RZ Efficiency
29
21
Broncos Offense vs Vikings Defense
Broncos logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
20
12
Yards / Game
26
16
Passing Yards / Game
13
28
Rushing Yards / Game
19
6

EPA

EPA / Play
20
16
EPA / Pass
20
21
EPA / Rush
19
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
10
Interceptions / Game
4
19
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
15
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
24
4th Down Efficiency
4
32
RZ Efficiency
19
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
-3
L
L
U
09/14
-6
L
P
O
09/24
-4
L
L
U
10/01
8
W
W
U
10/08
-7
L
L
U
10/15
6
W
W
U
10/23
5
W
W
U
10/29
14
W
W
U
11/05
3
W
W
O
11/12
8
W
W
O
DEN logo

Broncos

5-5
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/08
3
W
L
O
09/10
-1
L
L
U
09/17
-2
L
L
O
09/24
-50
L
L
O
10/01
3
W
P
O
10/08
-10
L
L
O
10/12
-11
L
L
U
10/22
2
W
W
U
10/29
15
W
W
U
11/13
2
W
W
U