MINVikings
6-6
14
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
78°F
5 mph
26
TBBuccaneers
7-5
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
78°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
6
8
0
14
Buccaneers
0
17
6
3
26
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
337
303
Total Plays
77
49
Yards / Play
4.4
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.24
Passing Yards
175
--
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.38
Rushing Yards
162
107
Rush Attempts
33
26
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
17
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.12
--
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-52
--
Sack EPA
-10.95
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
71
34
Penalty EPA
-7.29
-5.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model69.2%
Spread Pick
Vikings+7.0
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,605
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+11.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+2.3
Home QB Adjustment
+15.3
Away QB Adjustment
+13.0
Market Regression
+3.4
Final Difference
140.2
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
7
Yards / Game
2
8
Passing Yards / Game
5
21
Rushing Yards / Game
5
1
EPA
EPA / Play
13
6
EPA / Pass
9
6
EPA / Rush
8
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
27
10
Turnover EPA / Game
15
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
17
13
RZ Efficiency
6
11
Buccaneers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
29
Yards / Game
9
27
Passing Yards / Game
12
9
Rushing Yards / Game
25
27
EPA
EPA / Play
5
27
EPA / Pass
5
25
EPA / Rush
21
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
12
Interceptions / Game
15
9
Fumbles / Game
4
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
9
4th Down Efficiency
13
30
RZ Efficiency
11
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U