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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ buccaneers week 14, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
6-6
14
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
78°F
5 mph
26
TBBuccaneers
7-5
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
78°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
6
8
0
14
Buccaneers
0
17
6
3
26

Spread

TB logo
-7

Total

UNDER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
337
303
Total Plays
77
49
Yards / Play
4.4
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.00
+0.24
Passing Yards
175
--
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
15/23(65%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.38
Rushing Yards
162
107
Rush Attempts
33
26
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.24
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
27
17
Passing 1st downs
14
8
Rushing 1st downs
11
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
33%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
11
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.12
--
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-52
--
Sack EPA
-10.95
--
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
71
34
Penalty EPA
-7.29
-5.42

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market72.8%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
MIN logo
Vikings+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+6.1%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+108
Home nfelo
1,606
Away nfelo
1,511
Home Field
+11.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+1.1
Net QB Adjustment
+2.3
Home QB Adjustment
+15.3
Away QB Adjustment
+13.0
Market Regression
+3.6
Final Difference
141.0
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.0
Value
Ptile
09/27
-1.2
36
10/04
-1.6
33
10/11
-1.6
32
10/18
-0.9
38
11/01
-0.6
41
11/08
1.5
54
11/16
3.6
71
11/22
5.5
80
11/29
7.1
88
12/06
-0.6
42
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
Value
Ptile
09/27
3.9
72
10/04
8.9
94
10/08
-0.8
39
10/18
1.6
55
10/25
12.9
98
11/02
2.7
65
11/08
-10.6
2
11/15
8.9
94
11/23
-2.9
24
11/29
3.2
68

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Vikings logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
7
Yards / Game
2
8
Passing Yards / Game
5
21
Rushing Yards / Game
5
1

EPA

EPA / Play
13
6
EPA / Pass
9
6
EPA / Rush
8
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
30
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
27
10
Turnover EPA / Game
15
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
17
13
RZ Efficiency
6
11
Buccaneers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Buccaneers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
2
29
Yards / Game
9
27
Passing Yards / Game
12
9
Rushing Yards / Game
25
27

EPA

EPA / Play
5
27
EPA / Pass
5
25
EPA / Rush
21
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
12
Interceptions / Game
15
9
Fumbles / Game
4
28
Turnover EPA / Game
22
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
9
4th Down Efficiency
13
30
RZ Efficiency
11
10

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
-1
L
W
O
10/04
8
W
W
O
10/11
-1
L
W
U
10/18
-17
L
L
O
11/01
6
W
W
O
11/08
14
W
W
O
11/16
6
W
W
U
11/22
-3
L
L
O
11/29
1
W
L
O
12/06
3
W
L
P
TB logo

Buccaneers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/27
18
W
W
U
10/04
7
W
L
O
10/08
-1
L
L
U
10/18
28
W
W
U
10/25
25
W
W
O
11/02
2
W
L
O
11/08
-35
L
L
U
11/15
23
W
W
O
11/23
-3
L
L
O
11/29
-3
L
W
U