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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ cardinals week 13, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
10-1
17
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0
30
ARICardinals
7-4
ARI logo
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
3
0
7
17
Cardinals
7
14
6
3
30

Spread

ARI logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Cardinals logo
Total Yards
315
398
Total Plays
68
57
Yards / Play
4.6
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.14
Passing Yards
253
--
Comp/Att
30/45(67%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.44
Rushing Yards
62
113
Rush Attempts
20
25
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Cardinals logo
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
19
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Cardinals logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.04
-4.34
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-22
--
Sack EPA
-6.13
--
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
50
50
Penalty EPA
-3.63
-4.66

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-1.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model53.8%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+29
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,625
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-32.2
Home QB Adjustment
+13.2
Away QB Adjustment
+45.4
Market Regression
+10.1
Final Difference
-26.6
Model Spread
+1.5

Quarterbacks

B. Favre headshot

B. Favre

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+45.4
Value
Ptile
09/20
1.1
56
09/27
0.6
54
10/05
9.8
96
10/11
0.3
52
10/18
6.1
86
10/25
0.1
50
11/01
8.6
94
11/15
4.3
78
11/22
7.4
90
11/29
10.2
97
K. Warner headshot

K. Warner

Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
Value
Ptile
09/13
-3.5
28
09/20
8.0
92
09/27
-2.4
35
10/11
6.3
87
10/18
4.8
81
10/25
-2.2
37
11/01
-6.5
13
11/08
9.9
96
11/15
9.4
95
11/22
3.7
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Vikings logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
3
20
Yards / Game
6
24
Passing Yards / Game
15
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
16

EPA

EPA / Play
5
15
EPA / Pass
3
15
EPA / Rush
32
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
28
Interceptions / Game
1
8
Fumbles / Game
24
26
Turnover EPA / Game
25
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
11
4th Down Efficiency
8
19
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Cardinals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Cardinals logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
9
8
Yards / Game
12
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
24
Rushing Yards / Game
27
1

EPA

EPA / Play
17
3
EPA / Pass
13
12
EPA / Rush
19
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
19
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
2
4th Down Efficiency
13
4
RZ Efficiency
1
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
14
W
W
U
09/27
3
W
L
O
10/05
7
W
W
O
10/11
28
W
W
O
10/18
2
W
L
O
10/25
-10
L
L
U
11/01
12
W
W
O
11/15
17
W
P
U
11/22
26
W
W
U
11/29
26
W
W
U
ARI logo

Cardinals

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
14
W
W
O
09/27
-21
L
L
U
10/11
7
W
W
U
10/18
24
W
W
U
10/25
7
W
W
U
11/01
-13
L
L
O
11/08
20
W
W
O
11/15
11
W
W
O
11/22
8
W
L
U
11/29
-3
L
W
U