MINVikings
10-1
17
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
030
ARICardinals
7-4
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
3
0
7
17
Cardinals
7
14
6
3
30
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
398
Total Plays
68
57
Yards / Play
4.6
7.0
EPA / Play
-0.07
+0.14
Passing Yards
253
--
Comp/Att
30/45(67%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.44
Rushing Yards
62
113
Rush Attempts
20
25
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.29
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
20
Passing 1st downs
19
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
33%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.04
-4.34
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-22
--
Sack EPA
-6.13
--
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
50
50
Penalty EPA
-3.63
-4.66
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model53.9%
Spread Pick
Cardinals+3.5
Expected Value
+14.7%
Cover Probability
60.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+27
Home nfelo
1,591
Away nfelo
1,627
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-32.2
Home QB Adjustment
+13.2
Away QB Adjustment
+45.4
Market Regression
+10.1
Final Difference
-27.3
Model Spread
+1.5
Quarterbacks
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+45.4
K. Warner
Proj. Value
+2.9
Team Elo Adj
+13.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
20
Yards / Game
6
24
Passing Yards / Game
15
20
Rushing Yards / Game
11
16
EPA
EPA / Play
5
15
EPA / Pass
3
15
EPA / Rush
32
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
28
Interceptions / Game
1
8
Fumbles / Game
24
26
Turnover EPA / Game
25
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
11
4th Down Efficiency
8
19
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Cardinals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
8
Yards / Game
12
4
Passing Yards / Game
8
24
Rushing Yards / Game
27
1
EPA
EPA / Play
17
3
EPA / Pass
13
12
EPA / Rush
19
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
19
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
31
5
Turnover EPA / Game
5
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
2
4th Down Efficiency
13
4
RZ Efficiency
1
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cardinals
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U