MINVikings
-
17
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
74°F
7 mph
24
LACChargers
-
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
74°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
10
0
0
17
Chargers
7
0
7
10
24
Spread
+9
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
187
407
Total Plays
43
77
Yards / Play
4.3
5.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.07
Passing Yards
28
330
Comp/Att
7/15(47%)
33/48(69%)
Yards / Pass
1.9
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.79
+0.13
Rushing Yards
159
77
Rush Attempts
26
27
Yards / Rush
6.1
2.9
EPA / Rush
+0.19
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
31
Passing 1st downs
3
21
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
36%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.24
-7.11
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-5
Sack EPA
-2.29
-2.91
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
78
26
Penalty EPA
-6.73
-2.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+234
Home nfelo
1,632
Away nfelo
1,488
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.0
Home QB Adjustment
+4.4
Away QB Adjustment
-1.6
Market Regression
+8.9
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0
Quarterbacks
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-1.6
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+4.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
23
Yards / Game
18
16
Passing Yards / Game
17
10
Rushing Yards / Game
4
20
EPA
EPA / Play
20
29
EPA / Pass
29
28
EPA / Rush
2
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
25
Interceptions / Game
21
15
Fumbles / Game
24
31
Turnover EPA / Game
15
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
32
4th Down Efficiency
17
2
RZ Efficiency
8
26
Chargers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
31
Yards / Game
6
20
Passing Yards / Game
16
26
Rushing Yards / Game
16
10
EPA
EPA / Play
4
28
EPA / Pass
4
31
EPA / Rush
12
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
5
Interceptions / Game
25
31
Fumbles / Game
12
4
Turnover EPA / Game
7
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
29
4th Down Efficiency
20
26
RZ Efficiency
10
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chargers
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U