MINVikings
3-5
27
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
020
LACChargers
5-3
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
13
7
7
27
Chargers
0
10
7
3
20
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
381
253
Total Plays
72
55
Yards / Play
5.3
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.10
Passing Yards
278
171
Comp/Att
25/37(68%)
20/34(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.0
EPA / Pass
+0.18
-0.20
Rushing Yards
103
82
Rush Attempts
33
19
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
20
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
36%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-5.86
-4.21
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-16
-24
Sack EPA
-7.65
-5.10
Penalties
10
7
Penalty Yards
118
52
Penalty EPA
-12.64
-5.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+77
Home nfelo
1,530
Away nfelo
1,495
Home Field
+40.4
Base HFA
+40.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+1.8
Home QB Adjustment
+16.1
Away QB Adjustment
+14.3
Market Regression
+46.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+14.3
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
29
Yards / Game
10
23
Passing Yards / Game
15
23
Rushing Yards / Game
17
30
EPA
EPA / Play
18
25
EPA / Pass
12
17
EPA / Rush
26
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
27
Interceptions / Game
2
22
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
30
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
32
4th Down Efficiency
15
1
RZ Efficiency
10
27
Chargers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
24
Yards / Game
4
30
Passing Yards / Game
5
24
Rushing Yards / Game
21
26
EPA
EPA / Play
7
15
EPA / Pass
7
6
EPA / Rush
16
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
29
Interceptions / Game
21
12
Fumbles / Game
7
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
4
4th Down Efficiency
4
11
RZ Efficiency
3
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chargers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U