MINVikings
0-3
17
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
65°F
7 mph
22
KCChiefs
0-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
65°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
0
3
7
17
Chiefs
3
6
6
7
22
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
341
350
Total Plays
62
60
Yards / Play
5.5
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.06
Passing Yards
190
247
Comp/Att
18/30(60%)
18/29(62%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.08
+0.31
Rushing Yards
151
103
Rush Attempts
30
28
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.10
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
15
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
36%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.59
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-12
-13
Sack EPA
-4.09
+0.58
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
45
--
Penalty EPA
-5.95
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model50.9%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+3.0
Expected Value
+9.1%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+47
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,478
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.6
Home QB Adjustment
-8.7
Away QB Adjustment
-5.0
Market Regression
-20.4
Final Difference
-6.1
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-5.0
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-8.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
13
Yards / Game
18
11
Passing Yards / Game
17
2
Rushing Yards / Game
4
26
EPA
EPA / Play
20
21
EPA / Pass
29
22
EPA / Rush
2
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
20
Interceptions / Game
21
5
Fumbles / Game
24
18
Turnover EPA / Game
15
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
5
4th Down Efficiency
17
18
RZ Efficiency
8
20
Chiefs Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
31
Yards / Game
27
20
Passing Yards / Game
28
26
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10
EPA
EPA / Play
29
28
EPA / Pass
21
31
EPA / Rush
31
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
5
Interceptions / Game
23
31
Fumbles / Game
6
4
Turnover EPA / Game
14
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
29
4th Down Efficiency
15
26
RZ Efficiency
32
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
3-7
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U