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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ chiefs week 9, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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MIN logo
MINVikings
6-2
23
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
54°F
15 mph
26
KCChiefs
5-3
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
54°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
3
6
7
23
Chiefs
7
3
10
6
26

Spread

KC logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
308
377
Total Plays
66
58
Yards / Play
4.7
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.00
+0.06
Passing Yards
212
230
Comp/Att
19/38(50%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.08
Rushing Yards
96
147
Rush Attempts
27
18
Yards / Rush
3.6
8.2
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.77
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-8
-45
Sack EPA
-1.10
-5.96
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
-3.96

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model67.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-82
Home nfelo
1,575
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+51.5
Base HFA
+51.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-120.4
Home QB Adjustment
-107.0
Away QB Adjustment
+13.4
Market Regression
-32.5
Final Difference
-124.2
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
Value
Ptile
12/23
4.5
77
12/30
-3.2
26
09/08
-1.6
42
09/15
-6.0
15
09/22
0.2
53
09/29
-2.9
31
10/06
3.7
77
10/13
6.9
90
10/20
8.9
95
10/24
0.9
59
M. Moore headshot

M. Moore

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-107.0
Value
Ptile
12/18
-0.3
50
12/24
-3.9
26
01/01
-3.3
29
12/17
3.2
74
12/24
0.2
51
01/01
2.7
70
01/08
-0.1
47
10/26
-8.1
7
11/26
-8.8
5
10/27
2.7
71

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Vikings logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
11
10
Yards / Game
18
17
Passing Yards / Game
32
15
Rushing Yards / Game
8
25

EPA

EPA / Play
10
16
EPA / Pass
9
9
EPA / Rush
13
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
28
Interceptions / Game
7
4
Fumbles / Game
25
24
Turnover EPA / Game
21
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
10
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
10
10
Chiefs Offense vs Vikings Defense
Chiefs logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
2
6
Yards / Game
4
13
Passing Yards / Game
5
24
Rushing Yards / Game
22
17

EPA

EPA / Play
2
5
EPA / Pass
2
6
EPA / Rush
7
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
23
Interceptions / Game
3
3
Fumbles / Game
14
3
Turnover EPA / Game
29
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
22
RZ Efficiency
11
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
18
W
W
U
12/30
-14
L
L
U
09/08
16
W
W
U
09/15
-5
L
L
U
09/22
20
W
W
O
09/29
-10
L
L
U
10/06
18
W
W
U
10/13
18
W
W
O
10/20
12
W
W
O
10/24
10
W
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/12
18
W
W
U
01/20
-6
L
L
O
09/08
14
W
W
O
09/15
18
W
W
U
09/22
5
W
W
O
09/29
4
W
L
O
10/06
-6
L
L
U
10/13
-7
L
L
O
10/17
24
W
W
U
10/27
-7
L
L
O