MINVikings
6-2
23
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
54°F
15 mph
26
KCChiefs
5-3
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
54°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
3
6
7
23
Chiefs
7
3
10
6
26
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
377
Total Plays
66
58
Yards / Play
4.7
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.00
+0.06
Passing Yards
212
230
Comp/Att
19/38(50%)
25/35(71%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.27
+0.08
Rushing Yards
96
147
Rush Attempts
27
18
Yards / Rush
3.6
8.2
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
17
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
33%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.77
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-8
-45
Sack EPA
-1.10
-5.96
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
--
25
Penalty EPA
--
-3.96
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model67.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-83
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,592
Home Field
+50.8
Base HFA
+50.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-120.4
Home QB Adjustment
-107.0
Away QB Adjustment
+13.4
Market Regression
-32.7
Final Difference
-124.4
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+13.4
M. Moore
Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
-107.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
10
Yards / Game
19
17
Passing Yards / Game
32
15
Rushing Yards / Game
8
25
EPA
EPA / Play
10
16
EPA / Pass
9
9
EPA / Rush
12
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
28
Interceptions / Game
7
4
Fumbles / Game
25
24
Turnover EPA / Game
21
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
10
4th Down Efficiency
16
17
RZ Efficiency
10
10
Chiefs Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
6
Yards / Game
4
13
Passing Yards / Game
5
24
Rushing Yards / Game
22
17
EPA
EPA / Play
2
5
EPA / Pass
2
6
EPA / Rush
7
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
23
Interceptions / Game
3
3
Fumbles / Game
14
3
Turnover EPA / Game
29
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
19
4th Down Efficiency
3
22
RZ Efficiency
11
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Chiefs
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U