MINVikings
4-1
26
TBD
FedExField
74°F
14 mph
38
WASCommanders
2-3
TBD
FedExField
74°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
9
0
3
14
26
Commanders
0
17
7
8
32
Spread
+2
Total
OVER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
423
361
Total Plays
82
55
Yards / Play
5.2
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.27
Passing Yards
329
178
Comp/Att
35/54(65%)
17/22(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.24
Rushing Yards
94
183
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
20
Passing 1st downs
21
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
29%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.24
-3.86
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-25
-4
Sack EPA
-8.78
-0.80
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
29
66
Penalty EPA
-5.69
-5.97
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
+1.5
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model46.6%
Spread Pick
Commanders+2.0
Expected Value
+1.8%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+70
Home nfelo
1,443
Away nfelo
1,461
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+15.3
Home QB Adjustment
+28.1
Away QB Adjustment
+12.8
Market Regression
-18.6
Final Difference
24.0
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
R. Griffin
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+28.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
22
Yards / Game
20
28
Passing Yards / Game
30
32
Rushing Yards / Game
3
9
EPA
EPA / Play
14
23
EPA / Pass
22
21
EPA / Rush
4
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
21
Interceptions / Game
8
4
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
20
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
31
4th Down Efficiency
16
23
RZ Efficiency
17
14
Commanders Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
16
Yards / Game
9
15
Passing Yards / Game
15
30
Rushing Yards / Game
1
10
EPA
EPA / Play
7
15
EPA / Pass
6
24
EPA / Rush
2
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
21
Interceptions / Game
3
29
Fumbles / Game
6
9
Turnover EPA / Game
30
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
24
4th Down Efficiency
6
24
RZ Efficiency
5
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-2-1
O/U