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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ commanders week 6, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
4-1
26
TBD
FedExField
74°F
14 mph
38
WASCommanders
2-3
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
74°F
14 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
9
0
3
14
26
Commanders
0
17
7
8
32

Spread

WAS logo
+2

Total

OVER
44

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
423
361
Total Plays
82
55
Yards / Play
5.2
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.27
Passing Yards
329
178
Comp/Att
35/54(65%)
17/22(77%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
8.1
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.24
Rushing Yards
94
183
Rush Attempts
24
32
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.08
+0.29
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
27
20
Passing 1st downs
21
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
47%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
17
12
Red Zone %
29%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
7
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.24
-3.86
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-25
-4
Sack EPA
-8.78
-0.80
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
29
66
Penalty EPA
-5.69
-5.97

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
+2.0

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model46.2%
Spread Pick
WAS logo
Commanders+2.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.2%
Cover Probability
53.7%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+74
Home nfelo
1,444
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+15.3
Home QB Adjustment
+28.1
Away QB Adjustment
+12.8
Market Regression
-16.2
Final Difference
26.4
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

C. Ponder headshot

C. Ponder

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+12.8
Value
Ptile
12/04
3.4
74
12/11
-8.1
5
12/18
-5.7
15
12/24
-3.4
29
01/01
-8.8
3
09/09
1.4
60
09/16
2.5
65
09/23
6.9
90
09/30
-5.3
17
10/07
2.7
67
R. Griffin headshot

R. Griffin

Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+28.1
Value
Ptile
09/09
7.0
90
09/16
9.3
95
09/23
2.9
68
09/30
7.7
92
10/07
-4.2
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Commanders Defense
Vikings logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
17
22
Yards / Game
20
28
Passing Yards / Game
30
32
Rushing Yards / Game
3
9

EPA

EPA / Play
14
23
EPA / Pass
22
21
EPA / Rush
4
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
21
Interceptions / Game
8
4
Fumbles / Game
21
15
Turnover EPA / Game
20
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
31
4th Down Efficiency
16
23
RZ Efficiency
17
14
Commanders Offense vs Vikings Defense
Commanders logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
6
16
Yards / Game
9
15
Passing Yards / Game
15
30
Rushing Yards / Game
1
10

EPA

EPA / Play
7
15
EPA / Pass
6
24
EPA / Rush
2
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
21
Interceptions / Game
3
29
Fumbles / Game
6
9
Turnover EPA / Game
30
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
23
24
4th Down Efficiency
6
24
RZ Efficiency
5
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-3
L
L
O
12/11
-6
L
W
O
12/18
-22
L
L
O
12/24
7
W
W
O
01/01
-4
L
L
U
09/09
3
W
L
O
09/16
-3
L
L
U
09/23
11
W
W
U
09/30
7
W
W
U
10/07
23
W
W
U
WAS logo

Commanders

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-15
L
L
O
12/11
-7
L
W
O
12/18
13
W
W
U
12/24
-7
L
L
O
01/01
-24
L
L
P
09/09
8
W
W
O
09/16
-3
L
L
O
09/23
-7
L
L
O
09/30
2
W
W
O
10/07
-7
L
L
U