MINVikings
6-1
20
TBD
FedExField
71°F
11 mph
17
WASCommanders
4-4
TBD
FedExField
71°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
0
0
13
20
Commanders
0
3
7
7
17
Spread
3
P
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
263
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
4.6
4.3
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.07
Passing Yards
245
126
Comp/Att
23/41(56%)
15/28(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.00
-0.39
Rushing Yards
56
137
Rush Attempts
22
30
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
12
9
Rushing 1st downs
3
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
44%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.46
-5.51
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-17
-23
Sack EPA
-2.93
-4.97
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
42
--
Penalty EPA
-5.80
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-51
Home nfelo
1,430
Away nfelo
1,529
Home Field
+59.8
Base HFA
+39.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.7
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-11.1
Home QB Adjustment
-12.1
Away QB Adjustment
-1.0
Market Regression
+40.8
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-1.0
T. Heinicke
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-12.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
8
Yards / Game
5
3
Passing Yards / Game
3
10
Rushing Yards / Game
29
11
EPA
EPA / Play
17
8
EPA / Pass
10
8
EPA / Rush
28
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
8
Interceptions / Game
21
29
Fumbles / Game
18
29
Turnover EPA / Game
10
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
1
4th Down Efficiency
22
14
RZ Efficiency
8
9
Commanders Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
30
Yards / Game
20
31
Passing Yards / Game
16
26
Rushing Yards / Game
12
21
EPA
EPA / Play
22
26
EPA / Pass
25
27
EPA / Rush
21
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
11
Interceptions / Game
25
12
Fumbles / Game
20
24
Turnover EPA / Game
21
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
15
4th Down Efficiency
21
6
RZ Efficiency
23
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U