nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ commanders week 12, 2010

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

MIN logo
MINVikings
3-7
17
TBD
FedExField
47°F
5 mph
13
WASCommanders
5-5
WAS logo
TBD
FedExField
47°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
0
10
0
17
Commanders
7
0
0
6
13

Spread

MIN logo
-2

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Commanders logo
Total Yards
299
216
Total Plays
63
52
Yards / Play
4.7
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.05
Passing Yards
162
187
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.19
Rushing Yards
137
29
Rush Attempts
38
13
Yards / Rush
3.6
2.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Commanders logo
1st Downs
17
10
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
40%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Commanders logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.78
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-10
-24
Sack EPA
-2.30
-4.46
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
35
Penalty EPA
--
-3.99

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
N/A

Win Probability

Market54.7%
Model49.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+31
Home nfelo
1,435
Away nfelo
1,513
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+12.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.7
Away QB Adjustment
-22.2
Market Regression
-13.2
Final Difference
2.1
Model Spread
--

Quarterbacks

B. Favre headshot

B. Favre

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-22.2
Value
Ptile
09/09
-2.2
33
09/19
-7.4
9
09/26
-4.2
22
10/11
-2.7
31
10/17
-2.2
34
10/24
-4.7
19
10/31
0.7
53
11/07
6.4
89
11/14
-6.0
13
11/21
-4.2
22
D. McNabb headshot

D. McNabb

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
Value
Ptile
09/12
-1.9
37
09/19
6.7
90
09/26
1.4
57
10/03
-1.6
39
10/10
-1.9
38
10/17
-3.5
26
10/24
-6.1
13
10/31
-4.1
24
11/15
-2.2
34
11/21
1.9
60

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Commanders Defense
Vikings logo
Commanders logo

Total

Points / Game
29
22
Yards / Game
23
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
31
Rushing Yards / Game
10
25

EPA

EPA / Play
27
12
EPA / Pass
30
26
EPA / Rush
14
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
5
Interceptions / Game
32
19
Fumbles / Game
22
10
Turnover EPA / Game
2
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
29
RZ Efficiency
30
13
Commanders Offense vs Vikings Defense
Commanders logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
25
18
Yards / Game
17
8
Passing Yards / Game
4
6
Rushing Yards / Game
30
9

EPA

EPA / Play
28
9
EPA / Pass
25
10
EPA / Rush
19
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
9
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
24
4th Down Efficiency
12
19
RZ Efficiency
20
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/09
-5
L
L
U
09/19
-4
L
L
U
09/26
14
W
W
U
10/11
-9
L
L
O
10/17
3
W
W
O
10/24
-4
L
L
O
10/31
-10
L
L
O
11/07
3
W
L
O
11/14
-14
L
L
U
11/21
-28
L
L
U
WAS logo

Commanders

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/12
6
W
W
U
09/19
-3
L
L
O
09/26
-14
L
L
O
10/03
5
W
W
U
10/10
3
W
W
U
10/17
-3
L
P
O
10/24
3
W
W
U
10/31
-12
L
L
O
11/15
-31
L
L
O
11/21
3
W
W
U