MINVikings
3-7
17
TBD
FedExField
47°F
5 mph
13
WASCommanders
5-5
TBD
FedExField
47°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
0
10
0
17
Commanders
7
0
0
6
13
Spread
-2
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
299
216
Total Plays
63
52
Yards / Play
4.7
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.05
Passing Yards
162
187
Comp/Att
15/23(65%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.3
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.19
Rushing Yards
137
29
Rush Attempts
38
13
Yards / Rush
3.6
2.2
EPA / Rush
+0.01
-0.22
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
10
Passing 1st downs
8
9
Rushing 1st downs
8
1
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
40%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.78
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-10
-24
Sack EPA
-2.30
-4.46
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
--
35
Penalty EPA
--
-3.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-2.0
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model49.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+33
Home nfelo
1,437
Away nfelo
1,512
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+12.5
Home QB Adjustment
-9.7
Away QB Adjustment
-22.2
Market Regression
-12.2
Final Difference
3.1
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-22.2
D. McNabb
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Commanders Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
22
Yards / Game
23
31
Passing Yards / Game
12
31
Rushing Yards / Game
10
25
EPA
EPA / Play
27
12
EPA / Pass
30
26
EPA / Rush
14
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
5
Interceptions / Game
32
19
Fumbles / Game
22
10
Turnover EPA / Game
2
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
8
4th Down Efficiency
15
29
RZ Efficiency
30
13
Commanders Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
18
Yards / Game
17
8
Passing Yards / Game
4
6
Rushing Yards / Game
30
9
EPA
EPA / Play
28
9
EPA / Pass
25
10
EPA / Rush
19
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
15
Interceptions / Game
21
17
Fumbles / Game
22
22
Turnover EPA / Game
9
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
24
4th Down Efficiency
12
19
RZ Efficiency
20
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Commanders
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U