MINVikings
4-1
24
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
016
MIADolphins
3-2
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
10
0
14
24
Dolphins
0
3
0
13
16
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
236
458
Total Plays
51
74
Yards / Play
4.6
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.19
Passing Yards
158
385
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
30/48(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.14
-0.10
Rushing Yards
78
73
Rush Attempts
17
20
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
23
Passing 1st downs
7
18
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
17%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.41
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-19
-33
Sack EPA
-4.50
-10.13
Penalties
2
10
Penalty Yards
20
97
Penalty EPA
-1.42
-13.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-103
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,524
Home Field
+59.6
Base HFA
+39.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-142.2
Home QB Adjustment
-141.3
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
S. Thompson
Proj. Value
-4.0
Team Elo Adj
-141.3
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
24
Yards / Game
5
19
Passing Yards / Game
3
24
Rushing Yards / Game
29
4
EPA
EPA / Play
17
22
EPA / Pass
10
17
EPA / Rush
28
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
23
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
18
27
Turnover EPA / Game
10
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
26
4th Down Efficiency
22
13
RZ Efficiency
8
24
Dolphins Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
30
Yards / Game
9
31
Passing Yards / Game
4
26
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21
EPA
EPA / Play
11
26
EPA / Pass
8
27
EPA / Rush
20
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
26
12
Fumbles / Game
5
24
Turnover EPA / Game
15
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
15
4th Down Efficiency
11
6
RZ Efficiency
10
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Dolphins
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U