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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ dolphins week 6, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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MIN logo
MINVikings
4-1
24
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
0
16
MIADolphins
3-2
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
10
0
14
24
Dolphins
0
3
0
13
16

Spread

MIN logo
-3

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
236
458
Total Plays
51
74
Yards / Play
4.6
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.09
-0.19
Passing Yards
158
385
Comp/Att
20/31(65%)
30/48(63%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
8.0
EPA / Pass
-0.14
-0.10
Rushing Yards
78
73
Rush Attempts
17
20
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
11
23
Passing 1st downs
7
18
Rushing 1st downs
2
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
17%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.41
Sacks
3
6
Sack Yards
-19
-33
Sack EPA
-4.50
-10.13
Penalties
2
10
Penalty Yards
20
97
Penalty EPA
-1.42
-13.52

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-104
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,523
Home Field
+59.5
Base HFA
+39.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.6
Time Adj
+7.0
Net QB Adjustment
-142.2
Home QB Adjustment
-141.3
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
Value
Ptile
12/05
3.6
79
12/09
-2.5
34
12/20
-9.1
6
12/26
2.1
68
01/09
1.7
65
09/11
5.3
86
09/19
-6.2
13
09/25
0.6
56
10/02
-0.6
47
10/09
5.7
88
S. Thompson headshot

S. Thompson

Proj. Value
-4.2
Team Elo Adj
-141.3
No recent game data available

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Vikings logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
8
24
Yards / Game
5
19
Passing Yards / Game
3
24
Rushing Yards / Game
29
4

EPA

EPA / Play
17
22
EPA / Pass
10
17
EPA / Rush
28
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
23
Interceptions / Game
21
27
Fumbles / Game
18
27
Turnover EPA / Game
10
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
26
4th Down Efficiency
22
13
RZ Efficiency
8
24
Dolphins Offense vs Vikings Defense
Dolphins logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
11
30
Yards / Game
9
31
Passing Yards / Game
4
26
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21

EPA

EPA / Play
11
26
EPA / Pass
8
27
EPA / Rush
20
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
11
Interceptions / Game
26
12
Fumbles / Game
5
24
Turnover EPA / Game
15
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
15
4th Down Efficiency
11
6
RZ Efficiency
10
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
8
W
W
O
12/20
8
W
W
U
12/26
-7
L
L
O
01/02
-27
L
L
O
01/09
14
W
W
O
09/11
16
W
W
U
09/19
-17
L
L
U
09/25
4
W
L
P
10/02
3
W
L
O
10/09
7
W
L
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/05
11
W
W
U
12/19
7
W
L
O
12/27
17
W
W
U
01/02
-31
L
L
U
01/09
9
W
W
O
09/11
13
W
W
U
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/25
2
W
W
U
09/29
-12
L
L
U
10/09
-23
L
L
O