MINVikings
2-8
14
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
024
ATLFalcons
6-4
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
0
7
7
14
Falcons
7
10
0
7
24
Spread
10
P
Total
UNDER
44
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
226
335
Total Plays
53
65
Yards / Play
4.3
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.13
Passing Yards
162
246
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
27/34(79%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.39
Rushing Yards
64
89
Rush Attempts
24
29
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.42
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
31%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.41
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-24
-16
Sack EPA
-4.92
-3.21
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
49
--
Penalty EPA
-4.43
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+194
Home nfelo
1,561
Away nfelo
1,448
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+7.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
+18.6
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
17
Yards / Game
18
13
Passing Yards / Game
17
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
7
EPA
EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
29
16
EPA / Rush
2
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
24
17
Turnover EPA / Game
15
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
30
4th Down Efficiency
17
27
RZ Efficiency
8
8
Falcons Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
12
20
Passing Yards / Game
24
26
Rushing Yards / Game
18
10
EPA
EPA / Play
13
28
EPA / Pass
9
31
EPA / Rush
23
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
5
Interceptions / Game
8
31
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
28
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
29
4th Down Efficiency
30
26
RZ Efficiency
13
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U