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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ falcons week 12, 2011

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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MIN logo
MINVikings
2-8
14
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
24
ATLFalcons
6-4
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
0
7
7
14
Falcons
7
10
0
7
24

Spread

MIN logo
ATL logo
10
P

Total

UNDER
44

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
226
335
Total Plays
53
65
Yards / Play
4.3
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.13
Passing Yards
162
246
Comp/Att
17/25(68%)
27/34(79%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
7.2
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.39
Rushing Yards
64
89
Rush Attempts
24
29
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.42
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
31%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+5.41
--
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-24
-16
Sack EPA
-4.92
-3.21
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
49
--
Penalty EPA
-4.43
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+196
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,446
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+7.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.6
Market Regression
+18.6
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

C. Ponder headshot

C. Ponder

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.6
Value
Ptile
10/23
-3.0
31
10/30
-1.6
38
11/14
-6.0
14
11/20
-2.7
33
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.2
Value
Ptile
09/11
-2.5
34
09/18
-1.8
37
09/25
-1.3
42
10/02
6.1
86
10/09
-4.2
24
10/16
2.0
66
10/23
-3.1
31
11/06
1.3
62
11/13
3.6
75
11/20
4.8
81

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Falcons Defense
Vikings logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
18
17
Yards / Game
18
13
Passing Yards / Game
17
8
Rushing Yards / Game
4
7

EPA

EPA / Play
20
14
EPA / Pass
29
16
EPA / Rush
2
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
28
Interceptions / Game
21
11
Fumbles / Game
24
17
Turnover EPA / Game
15
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
30
4th Down Efficiency
17
27
RZ Efficiency
8
8
Falcons Offense vs Vikings Defense
Falcons logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
12
20
Passing Yards / Game
24
26
Rushing Yards / Game
18
10

EPA

EPA / Play
13
28
EPA / Pass
9
31
EPA / Rush
23
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
5
Interceptions / Game
8
31
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
28
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
6
29
4th Down Efficiency
30
26
RZ Efficiency
13
16

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-7
L
W
U
09/18
-4
L
L
O
09/25
-3
L
P
O
10/02
-5
L
L
U
10/09
24
W
W
U
10/16
-29
L
L
O
10/23
-6
L
W
O
10/30
3
W
W
U
11/14
-38
L
L
O
11/20
-6
L
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-18
L
L
O
09/18
4
W
W
O
09/25
-3
L
L
U
10/02
2
W
L
O
10/09
-11
L
L
U
10/16
14
W
W
U
10/23
7
W
W
U
11/06
24
W
W
U
11/13
-3
L
L
U
11/20
6
W
P
U