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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ falcons week 12, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
7-3
20
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0
10
ATLFalcons
6-4
ATL logo
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
0
3
10
20
Falcons
0
3
0
7
10

Spread

MIN logo
+2

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
365
326
Total Plays
67
57
Yards / Play
5.4
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
210
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.03
Rushing Yards
191
116
Rush Attempts
39
24
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
6
3rd Down %
58%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.28
-9.72
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-6.28
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
53
78
Penalty EPA
-6.77
-10.13

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,473
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+73.0
Base HFA
+61.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.1
Net QB Adjustment
-2.6
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+3.2
Market Regression
-6.1
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
Value
Ptile
09/14
-3.8
22
09/20
2.6
70
09/27
-6.3
10
10/04
-1.4
41
10/18
-5.8
12
10/25
1.9
64
11/01
-2.6
31
11/08
-0.7
47
11/15
-3.8
23
11/22
1.1
58
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Value
Ptile
09/14
1.0
57
09/20
3.6
76
09/27
5.4
84
10/04
1.5
62
10/11
-6.5
9
10/15
0.4
53
10/25
-2.4
33
11/01
8.1
94
11/08
2.3
66
11/22
-1.5
40

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Falcons Defense
Vikings logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
19
14
Yards / Game
29
15
Passing Yards / Game
31
3
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14

EPA

EPA / Play
11
15
EPA / Pass
24
17
EPA / Rush
4
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
24
Interceptions / Game
4
10
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
29
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
25
26
Falcons Offense vs Vikings Defense
Falcons logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
21
5
Yards / Game
5
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
26
Rushing Yards / Game
19
17

EPA

EPA / Play
16
12
EPA / Pass
8
11
EPA / Rush
29
14

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
6
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
29
25
Turnover EPA / Game
7
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
4
4th Down Efficiency
14
10
RZ Efficiency
17
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
-17
L
L
U
09/20
10
W
W
U
09/27
17
W
W
U
10/04
-3
L
W
U
10/18
6
W
W
U
10/25
9
W
W
O
11/01
3
W
W
U
11/08
3
W
W
U
11/15
16
W
W
P
11/22
-17
L
L
U
ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
2-7-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
2
W
W
U
09/20
4
W
W
U
09/27
11
W
W
O
10/04
27
W
W
O
10/11
6
W
L
U
10/15
-10
L
L
P
10/25
3
W
L
U
11/01
-3
L
L
U
11/08
-1
L
L
U
11/22
-3
L
L
U