MINVikings
7-3
20
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
010
ATLFalcons
6-4
TBD
Georgia Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
0
3
10
20
Falcons
0
3
0
7
10
Spread
+2
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
365
326
Total Plays
67
57
Yards / Play
5.4
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.13
-0.10
Passing Yards
--
210
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
22/31(71%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.03
-0.03
Rushing Yards
191
116
Rush Attempts
39
24
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.11
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
22
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
11
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
6
3rd Down %
58%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
50%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.28
-9.72
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-6.28
Penalties
9
6
Penalty Yards
53
78
Penalty EPA
-6.77
-10.13
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+11
Home nfelo
1,475
Away nfelo
1,534
Home Field
+72.3
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.0
Net QB Adjustment
-2.6
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
+3.2
Market Regression
-6.9
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+3.2
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
14
Yards / Game
29
15
Passing Yards / Game
31
3
Rushing Yards / Game
5
14
EPA
EPA / Play
11
15
EPA / Pass
24
17
EPA / Rush
4
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
24
Interceptions / Game
4
10
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
29
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
27
4th Down Efficiency
15
5
RZ Efficiency
25
26
Falcons Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
5
Yards / Game
5
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
26
Rushing Yards / Game
19
17
EPA
EPA / Play
16
12
EPA / Pass
8
11
EPA / Rush
29
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
6
Interceptions / Game
24
16
Fumbles / Game
29
25
Turnover EPA / Game
7
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
4
4th Down Efficiency
14
10
RZ Efficiency
17
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
2-7-1
O/U