MINVikings
6-2
12
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
7 mph
7
JAXJaguars
2-7
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
79°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
3
0
3
6
12
Jaguars
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
402
143
Total Plays
82
43
Yards / Play
4.9
3.3
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.24
Passing Yards
233
87
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
14/22(64%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
4.0
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.41
Rushing Yards
169
56
Rush Attempts
43
18
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
10
Passing 1st downs
15
5
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
36%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-14.91
-9.90
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-8
-24
Sack EPA
-2.65
-3.54
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
40
--
Penalty EPA
-3.24
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model66.5%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+7.0
Expected Value
+9.2%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-73
Home nfelo
1,499
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+64.2
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
+7.5
Net QB Adjustment
-60.2
Home QB Adjustment
-59.8
Away QB Adjustment
+0.4
Market Regression
-9.8
Final Difference
-118.8
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-59.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
27
Yards / Game
12
31
Passing Yards / Game
3
26
Rushing Yards / Game
19
24
EPA
EPA / Play
17
31
EPA / Pass
17
32
EPA / Rush
23
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
25
Interceptions / Game
18
30
Fumbles / Game
19
31
Turnover EPA / Game
11
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
26
4th Down Efficiency
29
17
RZ Efficiency
19
20
Jaguars Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
4
Yards / Game
25
14
Passing Yards / Game
26
31
Rushing Yards / Game
25
2
EPA
EPA / Play
18
2
EPA / Pass
20
7
EPA / Rush
16
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
22
1
Fumbles / Game
17
13
Turnover EPA / Game
23
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
2
4th Down Efficiency
20
1
RZ Efficiency
13
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U