MINVikings
6-6
25
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
71°F
5 mph
16
JAXJaguars
2-10
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
71°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
6
3
3
13
25
Jaguars
0
9
7
0
16
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
38
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
315
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
6.0
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.19
-0.06
Passing Yards
--
230
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
23/37(62%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.2
EPA / Pass
+0.44
-0.02
Rushing Yards
85
85
Rush Attempts
29
24
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.41
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
17
Passing 1st downs
13
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
27%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
11
16
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-6.44
--
Sacks
--
4
Sack Yards
--
-27
Sack EPA
--
-6.11
Penalties
6
14
Penalty Yards
88
114
Penalty EPA
-7.79
-13.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model61.1%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+3.5
Expected Value
+5.8%
Cover Probability
55.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-28
Home nfelo
1,408
Away nfelo
1,505
Home Field
+87.3
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.9
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
-18.7
Home QB Adjustment
+7.7
Away QB Adjustment
+26.4
Market Regression
-10.4
Final Difference
-78.7
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+26.4
R. Bortles
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+7.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
24
Yards / Game
28
6
Passing Yards / Game
30
1
Rushing Yards / Game
32
18
EPA
EPA / Play
23
21
EPA / Pass
14
9
EPA / Rush
32
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
18
Interceptions / Game
2
32
Fumbles / Game
22
24
Turnover EPA / Game
29
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
9
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
29
14
Jaguars Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
5
Yards / Game
22
3
Passing Yards / Game
11
4
Rushing Yards / Game
23
19
EPA
EPA / Play
24
4
EPA / Pass
28
2
EPA / Rush
25
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
10
Interceptions / Game
21
14
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
10
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
15
4th Down Efficiency
25
2
RZ Efficiency
11
13
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U