MINVikings
2-1
20
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
013
DETLions
1-2
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
10
3
1
0
14
Lions
3
3
0
7
13
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
227
341
Total Plays
56
76
Yards / Play
4.1
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.13
Passing Yards
100
286
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
30/51(59%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.05
Rushing Yards
127
55
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
4.5
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.48
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
4
17
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
25%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.23
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-11
-33
Sack EPA
-1.90
-6.00
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
87
72
Penalty EPA
-7.79
-7.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+100
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.9
Home QB Adjustment
+14.2
Away QB Adjustment
+13.3
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
27
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
30
9
Rushing Yards / Game
3
16
EPA
EPA / Play
14
21
EPA / Pass
22
20
EPA / Rush
4
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
8
23
Fumbles / Game
21
22
Turnover EPA / Game
20
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
17
13
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
16
Yards / Game
3
15
Passing Yards / Game
4
30
Rushing Yards / Game
23
10
EPA
EPA / Play
21
15
EPA / Pass
16
24
EPA / Rush
21
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
21
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
26
9
Turnover EPA / Game
2
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
24
4th Down Efficiency
24
24
RZ Efficiency
7
29
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
1-8-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U