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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ lions week 4, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
2-1
20
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
13
DETLions
1-2
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
10
3
1
0
14
Lions
3
3
0
7
13

Spread

MIN logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
227
341
Total Plays
56
76
Yards / Play
4.1
4.5
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.13
Passing Yards
100
286
Comp/Att
16/26(62%)
30/51(59%)
Yards / Pass
3.8
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.33
+0.05
Rushing Yards
127
55
Rush Attempts
28
20
Yards / Rush
4.5
2.8
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.48
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
15
23
Passing 1st downs
4
17
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
25%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.23
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-11
-33
Sack EPA
-1.90
-6.00
Penalties
5
5
Penalty Yards
87
72
Penalty EPA
-7.79
-7.32

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DET logo
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+99
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,423
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+0.9
Home QB Adjustment
+14.2
Away QB Adjustment
+13.3
Market Regression
-27.3
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Ponder headshot

C. Ponder

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+13.3
Value
Ptile
11/20
-2.7
33
11/27
-2.0
36
12/04
3.4
74
12/11
-8.1
5
12/18
-5.7
15
12/24
-3.4
29
01/01
-8.8
3
09/09
1.4
60
09/16
2.5
65
09/23
6.9
90
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Value
Ptile
11/24
1.6
63
12/04
3.6
75
12/11
-1.6
39
12/18
8.5
95
12/24
10.0
97
01/01
10.4
97
01/07
8.1
94
09/09
0.8
55
09/16
-1.1
42
09/23
6.4
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Vikings logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
17
27
Yards / Game
20
12
Passing Yards / Game
30
9
Rushing Yards / Game
3
16

EPA

EPA / Play
14
21
EPA / Pass
22
20
EPA / Rush
4
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
24
Interceptions / Game
8
23
Fumbles / Game
21
22
Turnover EPA / Game
20
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
8
4th Down Efficiency
16
32
RZ Efficiency
17
13
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Lions logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
16
16
Yards / Game
3
15
Passing Yards / Game
4
30
Rushing Yards / Game
23
10

EPA

EPA / Play
21
15
EPA / Pass
16
24
EPA / Rush
21
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
12
21
Interceptions / Game
22
29
Fumbles / Game
26
9
Turnover EPA / Game
2
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
24
4th Down Efficiency
24
24
RZ Efficiency
7
29

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
-6
L
L
O
11/27
-10
L
P
U
12/04
-3
L
L
O
12/11
-6
L
W
O
12/18
-22
L
L
O
12/24
7
W
W
O
01/01
-4
L
L
U
09/09
3
W
L
O
09/16
-3
L
L
U
09/23
11
W
W
U
DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
1-8-1
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/24
-12
L
L
U
12/04
-14
L
L
U
12/11
6
W
L
O
12/18
1
W
P
O
12/24
28
W
W
U
01/01
-4
L
L
O
01/07
-17
L
L
O
09/09
4
W
L
O
09/16
-8
L
L
P
09/23
-3
L
L
O