MINVikings
2-10
28
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
034
DETLions
7-5
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
7
7
7
28
Lions
15
4
0
3
22
Spread
+10
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
425
280
Total Plays
83
55
Yards / Play
5.1
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.05
Passing Yards
156
208
Comp/Att
23/44(52%)
20/29(69%)
Yards / Pass
3.5
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.59
+0.20
Rushing Yards
269
72
Rush Attempts
35
21
Yards / Rush
7.7
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.55
-0.23
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
13
Passing 1st downs
12
11
Rushing 1st downs
17
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
57%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
6
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-33.42
--
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-43
-19
Sack EPA
-14.60
-5.97
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
--
76
Penalty EPA
--
-1.31
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model78.2%
Spread Pick
Vikings+10.0
Expected Value
+3.7%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+165
Home nfelo
1,525
Away nfelo
1,416
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+9.5
Home QB Adjustment
+16.2
Away QB Adjustment
+6.7
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
221.5
Model Spread
-9.5
Quarterbacks
C. Ponder
Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
+6.7
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+16.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
24
Yards / Game
18
28
Passing Yards / Game
17
31
Rushing Yards / Game
4
25
EPA
EPA / Play
20
13
EPA / Pass
29
6
EPA / Rush
2
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
17
Interceptions / Game
21
8
Fumbles / Game
24
3
Turnover EPA / Game
15
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
7
4th Down Efficiency
17
20
RZ Efficiency
8
14
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
31
Yards / Game
4
20
Passing Yards / Game
5
26
Rushing Yards / Game
30
10
EPA
EPA / Play
9
28
EPA / Pass
7
31
EPA / Rush
14
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
5
Interceptions / Game
20
31
Fumbles / Game
9
4
Turnover EPA / Game
16
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
29
4th Down Efficiency
6
26
RZ Efficiency
3
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
2-8
SU
3-5-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Lions
5-5
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U