MINVikings
7-9
20
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
030
DETLions
11-5
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
6
7
7
20
Lions
13
0
7
10
30
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
448
381
Total Plays
70
56
Yards / Play
6.4
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.13
Passing Yards
359
311
Comp/Att
30/44(68%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
9.7
EPA / Pass
-0.06
+0.34
Rushing Yards
89
70
Rush Attempts
22
23
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
19
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
15%
11%
3rd Down Conversions
2
1
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.08
--
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-37
-9
Sack EPA
-7.42
-1.67
Penalties
8
4
Penalty Yards
77
20
Penalty EPA
-4.50
-7.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DETLionsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+143
Home nfelo
1,592
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+33.5
Base HFA
+46.1
Divisional Adj
-20.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+8.3
Net QB Adjustment
+36.0
Home QB Adjustment
+0.0
Away QB Adjustment
-36.0
Market Regression
-21.6
Final Difference
109.4
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
N. Mullens
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
-36.0
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
+0.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
25
Yards / Game
11
23
Passing Yards / Game
2
18
Rushing Yards / Game
29
2
EPA
EPA / Play
21
23
EPA / Pass
17
28
EPA / Rush
17
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
27
Interceptions / Game
29
9
Fumbles / Game
29
29
Turnover EPA / Game
5
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
13
4th Down Efficiency
8
27
RZ Efficiency
29
30
Lions Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
12
Yards / Game
2
16
Passing Yards / Game
3
28
Rushing Yards / Game
6
6
EPA
EPA / Play
8
16
EPA / Pass
5
21
EPA / Rush
11
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
10
Interceptions / Game
8
19
Fumbles / Game
19
8
Turnover EPA / Game
14
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
24
4th Down Efficiency
13
32
RZ Efficiency
2
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-3-2
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U