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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ packers week 2, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
1-0
16
TBD
Lambeau Field
72°F
5 mph
21
GBPackers
1-0
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
72°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
10
6
0
16
Packers
14
7
0
0
21

Spread

GB logo
-3

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
421
335
Total Plays
60
69
Yards / Play
7.0
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.14
Passing Yards
223
191
Comp/Att
14/32(44%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.42
-0.00
Rushing Yards
198
144
Rush Attempts
27
33
Yards / Rush
7.3
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.34
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-14.99
-8.79
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-18
Sack EPA
-5.75
-3.87
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
100
35
Penalty EPA
-0.83
-3.60

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+32
Home nfelo
1,534
Away nfelo
1,554
Home Field
+52.3
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.1
Home QB Adjustment
-3.1
Away QB Adjustment
-2.0
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
+0.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Value
Ptile
10/28
2.3
65
11/04
-1.3
37
11/18
0.1
47
11/25
8.9
94
12/02
-3.0
27
12/10
-1.7
35
12/16
-2.1
33
12/23
4.5
77
12/30
-3.2
26
09/08
-1.6
42
A. Rodgers headshot

A. Rodgers

Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.1
Value
Ptile
11/04
1.3
56
11/11
1.6
58
11/15
2.1
63
11/25
-2.9
29
12/02
2.2
64
12/09
0.3
48
12/16
-3.0
27
12/23
11.8
98
12/30
-7.1
10
09/05
-3.7
26

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Vikings logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
11
12
Yards / Game
18
18
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
8
26

EPA

EPA / Play
10
18
EPA / Pass
9
8
EPA / Rush
13
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
20
Interceptions / Game
7
5
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
21
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
10
11
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Packers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
17
13
Passing Yards / Game
13
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17

EPA

EPA / Play
7
5
EPA / Pass
10
6
EPA / Rush
9
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
31
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
19
19
4th Down Efficiency
8
22
RZ Efficiency
2
2

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/28
-10
L
L
U
11/04
15
W
W
U
11/18
-5
L
L
O
11/25
7
W
W
U
12/02
-14
L
L
U
12/10
-14
L
L
U
12/16
24
W
W
O
12/23
18
W
W
U
12/30
-14
L
L
U
09/08
16
W
W
U
GB logo

Packers

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/04
-14
L
L
U
11/11
19
W
W
U
11/15
-3
L
P
O
11/25
-7
L
L
U
12/02
-3
L
L
U
12/09
14
W
W
O
12/16
-7
L
L
U
12/23
6
W
W
O
12/30
-31
L
L
U
09/05
7
W
W
U