MINVikings
1-0
16
TBD
Lambeau Field
72°F
5 mph
21
GBPackers
1-0
TBD
Lambeau Field
72°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
0
10
6
0
16
Packers
14
7
0
0
21
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
421
335
Total Plays
60
69
Yards / Play
7.0
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.14
Passing Yards
223
191
Comp/Att
14/32(44%)
22/34(65%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.42
-0.00
Rushing Yards
198
144
Rush Attempts
27
33
Yards / Rush
7.3
4.4
EPA / Rush
+0.34
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
31%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-14.99
-8.79
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-18
Sack EPA
-5.75
-3.87
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
100
35
Penalty EPA
-0.83
-3.60
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+28
Home nfelo
1,535
Away nfelo
1,557
Home Field
+51.7
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-1.1
Home QB Adjustment
-3.1
Away QB Adjustment
-2.0
Market Regression
+22.8
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-3.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
12
Yards / Game
19
18
Passing Yards / Game
32
8
Rushing Yards / Game
8
26
EPA
EPA / Play
10
18
EPA / Pass
9
8
EPA / Rush
12
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
20
Interceptions / Game
7
5
Fumbles / Game
25
20
Turnover EPA / Game
21
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
13
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
10
11
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
6
Yards / Game
17
13
Passing Yards / Game
13
24
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17
EPA
EPA / Play
7
5
EPA / Pass
10
6
EPA / Rush
9
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
23
Interceptions / Game
1
3
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
31
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
19
4th Down Efficiency
8
22
RZ Efficiency
2
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
2-8
O/U
Packers
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
3-7
O/U