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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. vikings @ packers week 4, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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MIN logo
MINVikings
3-0
31
TBD
Lambeau Field
71°F
15 mph
29
GBPackers
2-1
GB logo
TBD
Lambeau Field
71°F
15 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
14
14
0
3
31
Packers
0
7
0
22
29

Spread

MIN logo
+2.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Vikings logo
Packers logo
Total Yards
374
467
Total Plays
64
75
Yards / Play
5.8
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.09
Passing Yards
254
381
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
32/55(58%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.16
Rushing Yards
120
86
Rush Attempts
34
19
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
Vikings logo
Packers logo
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
11
19
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
60%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Vikings logo
Packers logo
Turnovers
2
5
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-10.09
-12.47
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-21
-10
Sack EPA
-7.42
-1.60
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
55
68
Penalty EPA
-7.55
-10.39

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
GB logo
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+42
Home nfelo
1,544
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+41.9
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
-21.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
-5.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

S. Darnold headshot

S. Darnold

Proj. Value
-0.0
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
Value
Ptile
11/27
2.3
70
12/11
-2.0
37
12/18
-2.8
29
12/24
3.0
76
01/01
4.8
84
01/08
-10.1
2
01/07
0.2
51
09/08
1.5
59
09/15
1.7
61
09/22
0.1
49
J. Love headshot

J. Love

Proj. Value
+1.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Value
Ptile
11/23
8.3
94
12/03
6.2
88
12/11
-1.9
37
12/17
3.9
75
12/24
4.5
78
12/31
8.5
95
01/07
7.3
92
01/14
8.2
94
01/20
-1.2
41
09/06
-1.8
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Vikings logo
Packers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
12
4
Passing Yards / Game
3
22
Rushing Yards / Game
19
7

EPA

EPA / Play
17
5
EPA / Pass
17
5
EPA / Rush
23
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
31
Interceptions / Game
18
3
Fumbles / Game
19
4
Turnover EPA / Game
11
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
7
4th Down Efficiency
29
22
RZ Efficiency
19
16
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Packers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
8
4
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
2

EPA

EPA / Play
9
2
EPA / Pass
8
7
EPA / Rush
8
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
4
Interceptions / Game
20
1
Fumbles / Game
19
13
Turnover EPA / Game
16
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
2
4th Down Efficiency
23
1
RZ Efficiency
10
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
4-4-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/19
-1
L
W
U
11/27
-2
L
L
U
12/10
3
W
P
U
12/16
-3
L
P
O
12/24
-6
L
L
O
12/31
-23
L
L
O
01/07
-10
L
L
O
09/08
22
W
W
U
09/15
6
W
W
U
09/22
27
W
W
U
GB logo

Packers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-2
L
L
O
12/17
-14
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
L
O
12/31
23
W
W
O
01/07
8
W
W
U
01/14
16
W
W
O
01/20
-3
L
W
U
09/06
-5
L
L
O
09/15
6
W
W
U
09/22
16
W
W
O