MINVikings
3-0
31
TBD
Lambeau Field
71°F
15 mph
29
GBPackers
2-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
71°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
14
14
0
3
31
Packers
0
7
0
22
29
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
374
467
Total Plays
64
75
Yards / Play
5.8
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.00
-0.09
Passing Yards
254
381
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
32/55(58%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.29
-0.16
Rushing Yards
120
86
Rush Attempts
34
19
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.22
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
11
19
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
36%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
12
Red Zone %
60%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
5
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-10.09
-12.47
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-21
-10
Sack EPA
-7.42
-1.60
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
55
68
Penalty EPA
-7.55
-10.39
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+40
Home nfelo
1,542
Away nfelo
1,548
Home Field
+41.9
Base HFA
+46.6
Divisional Adj
-21.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+16.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.5
Home QB Adjustment
-0.6
Away QB Adjustment
-5.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
S. Darnold
Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.1
J. Love
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
5
Yards / Game
12
4
Passing Yards / Game
3
22
Rushing Yards / Game
19
7
EPA
EPA / Play
17
5
EPA / Pass
17
5
EPA / Rush
23
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
31
Interceptions / Game
18
3
Fumbles / Game
19
4
Turnover EPA / Game
11
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
7
4th Down Efficiency
29
22
RZ Efficiency
19
16
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
4
Yards / Game
7
14
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
2
EPA
EPA / Play
9
2
EPA / Pass
8
7
EPA / Rush
8
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
4
Interceptions / Game
20
1
Fumbles / Game
19
13
Turnover EPA / Game
16
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
2
4th Down Efficiency
23
1
RZ Efficiency
10
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
4-6
SU
4-4-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Packers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U