MINVikings
6-1
38
TBD
Lambeau Field
48°F
6 mph
26
GBPackers
4-2
TBD
Lambeau Field
48°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Vikings
7
10
7
14
38
Packers
3
0
17
6
26
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
355
351
Total Plays
60
68
Yards / Play
5.9
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.26
+0.01
Passing Yards
--
261
Comp/Att
17/28(61%)
27/43(63%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.76
+0.10
Rushing Yards
111
90
Rush Attempts
32
19
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
14
17
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
43%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
6
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
16
Red Zone %
80%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.64
--
Sacks
--
6
Sack Yards
--
-29
Sack EPA
--
-8.79
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
29
45
Penalty EPA
-3.13
-3.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+59
Home nfelo
1,599
Away nfelo
1,591
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.3
Home QB Adjustment
+15.8
Away QB Adjustment
+21.1
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Favre
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.1
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Vikings Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
15
Yards / Game
6
3
Passing Yards / Game
15
10
Rushing Yards / Game
11
2
EPA
EPA / Play
5
5
EPA / Pass
3
8
EPA / Rush
32
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
1
Interceptions / Game
1
1
Fumbles / Game
24
19
Turnover EPA / Game
25
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
9
4th Down Efficiency
8
4
RZ Efficiency
3
28
Packers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
3
4
Passing Yards / Game
1
24
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1
EPA
EPA / Play
4
3
EPA / Pass
5
12
EPA / Rush
5
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
19
Interceptions / Game
2
27
Fumbles / Game
11
5
Turnover EPA / Game
28
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
2
4th Down Efficiency
20
4
RZ Efficiency
7
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Vikings
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
5-2-3
O/U
Packers
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
3-3-4
O/U